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Information about developments at snowballing problem
- Thread starter mexxico
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Hot damn that looks really good. Snowball score of 33. Its just one test but a good sign.
My meetings are finally over so I just started one, be back with the results soon™
When I came back I was surprised how good the map was.
I can't wait to see yours (and others) tomorrow.
Ok first 10 years are done, looking good. We'll see how it plays out.
Well after 20 years I am so impressed. We went from a snowball score of 21 down to 11, I have never seen snowball score go down! @mexxico I'm so proud of you, I think we may be done with snowballing!
Well after 20 years I am so impressed. We went from a snowball score of 21 down to 11, I have never seen snowball score go down! @mexxico I'm so proud of you, I think we may be done with snowballing!
| 1.5.8 | Test 1 10 yrs | Test 1 20 yrs | 20 yr Strength | Original Clans | Recruited Clans | Rebel Clans | Mercenaries | Total Noble Clans | Total Clans w/ MERCs |
| Aserai | 33 | 28 | 5545 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Battania | 27 | 17 | 4187 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Khuzait | 25 | 23 | 5603 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| Northern | 10 | 13 | 6370 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| Southern | 9 | 21 | 4294 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Western | 28 | 19 | 5766 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Sturgia | 23 | 22 | 4286 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 11 |
| Vlandia | 20 | 30 | 7063 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| Snowball score | 21 | 11 |
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Thanks for new tests @Blood Gryphon and @Ferisko. Your test results seem pretty balanced. I will prepare new table after collecting new 20 tests from different users at 1.5.8. I expect an average snowball score of below 50 this time. I hope we get it. I think improvements at short term AI calculations (which helps smaller parties catching bigger army when they are overpowered instead of making back and forths) and financial developments at mercenary hirinig issues and improved war - peace calculations and improvements at long term target selection AI (further targets now selected less) and reducing passive xp gain of AI lords a bit helped making map balanced.
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Fantastic effort, that line of fan - dev (mexxico) cooperation is absolutely praiseworthy. Keep up the good work
That's what gives me hope. Bannerlord is an awesome game, but it still has more potential. This cooperation is going to take Bannerlord far.Fantastic effort, that line of fan - dev (mexxico) cooperation is absolutely praiseworthy. Keep up the good work
Ask and you shall receive
Test number 2 went great with a snowball score of 22, left it overnight so no 10 year data. So far in both my tests no clans have defected which I think is playing a huge role in the ability to comeback after initially losing. Mex did you make any changes directly with defection or is this the result of not letting kingdoms go bankrupt from mercenaries?
| Test 2 | Test 2 20 yrs | 20 yr Strength | Original Clans | Recruited Clans | Rebel Clans | Mercenaries | Total Noble Clans | Total Clans w/ MERCs |
| Aserai | 29 | 8685 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Battania | 31 | 6405 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| Khuzait | 31 | 4995 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Northern | 18 | 5855 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 |
| Southern | 10 | 3822 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Western | 20 | 5854 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Sturgia | 24 | 4034 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Vlandia | 10 | 3804 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
| Snowball score | 22 |
Test number 3 10 yr results, still looking good. After 20 years this is the worst we've seen so far and its still below 40
| Test 3 | Test 3 10 yrs | Test 3 20 yrs | 20 yr Strength | Original Clans | Recruited Clans | Rebel Clans | Mercenaries | Total Noble Clans | Total Clans w/ MERCs |
| Aserai | 23 | 20 | 5201 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Battania | 13 | 15 | 5134 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| Khuzait | 36 | 30 | 6605 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 |
| Northern | 14 | 12 | 3710 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| Southern | 17 | 16 | 4234 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Western | 19 | 28 | 6693 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Sturgia | 14 | 8 | 5317 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Vlandia | 37 | 44 | 10119 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 |
| Snowball score | 26 | 38 |
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| Test 1 | Test 2 | Test 3 | |
| Aserai | 25 | 35 | 36 |
| Battania | 30 | 21 | 15 |
| Khuzait | 28 | 22 | 28 |
| Northern Empire | 7 | 17 | 9 |
| Southern Empire | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| Sturgia | 34 | 19 | 20 |
| Vlandia | 12 | 24 | 23 |
| Western Empire | 23 | 19 | 29 |
I can't find the post where it says how to calculate snowballing scores but just eyeballing mine are looking a bit higher than everyone else's for some reason.
Add up points outside of 20-35, so your scores would be 27, 11, and 24. With your scores our avg is 23.7 over 7 tests.
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@Blood Gryphon is explained but you can look here to see how calculations done in one picture :
Thank you @Dabos37 there were tons of feedback of you and other players provided which are used for solving these problems. I thank you all.
Thank you @Dabos37 there were tons of feedback of you and other players provided which are used for solving these problems. I thank you all.
I really wanna know the 40 year result
was going to let my first test run for 40 years but my character caught illness at 30 years lol. Looking good!
| 1.5.8 Test 1 | Test 1 10 yrs | Test 1 20 yrs | Test 1 30 yrs |
| Aserai | 33 | 28 | 30 |
| Battania | 27 | 17 | 22 |
| Khuzait | 25 | 23 | 21 |
| Northern | 10 | 13 | 15 |
| Southern | 9 | 21 | 14 |
| Western | 28 | 19 | 17 |
| Sturgia | 23 | 22 | 19 |
| Vlandia | 20 | 30 | 35 |
| Snowball score | 21 | 11 | 15 |
They weren't completely disabled but there were changes so that clans basically need to be fiefless and nearly-broke to consider defecting.
Defection calculations last changed at 1.5.6 it is same since that day. Reason why defections are reduced in 1.5.8 is they do not left without fief (because better campaign AI) and they do not left without money easily now. Also they have better money management, for example they do not hire mercenaries if they have financial problems. If you make 30 year tests you can see several defections in some runs.
Because they do not suffer from money easily now I think we are ready to close one of AI cheats "upgrading troops to cavalry without using horse". However decision is not at me about this. But I will make some tests for this to see if anything is effected badly if we remove that cheat.
By the way if anyone finds time it is good to have more 20 year tests from 1.5.8 especially with number of noble clans data and fief score data at 20th year is better. So we can see how many percentage of runs have defections with snowball score.
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Test 4 still looking good. Test 5 rolling.
| Test 4 1.5.8 | Test 4 10 yrs | Test 4 20 yrs | 20 yr Strength | Original Clans | Recruited Clans | Rebel Clans | Mercenaries | Total Noble Clans | Total Clans w/ MERCs |
| Aserai | 30 | 27 | 6399 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Battania | 14 | 15 | 4998 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Khuzait | 26 | 26 | 7138 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Northern | 20 | 25 | 3661 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Southern | 15 | 16 | 5181 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Western | 13 | 9 | 2455 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Sturgia | 22 | 21 | 8454 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 |
| Vlandia | 33 | 32 | 5799 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| Snowball score | 18 | 20 |
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Thank you for tests @Blood Gryphon maybe you noticed kingdoms getting enemy castles / towns which are located further to borders issue is reduced and at 1.5.8 maps factions do not have towns inside enemy territory much (except test 1 Car Banseth (seems converted by rebellion (different clan icon)) & test 4 Jalmarys).
Test 5 finally had some defection and seemingly the beginning of the death of a faction (Battania). But even with that snowballing improved from year 10 to year 20. @mexxico yep definitely seeing improvements, honestly haven't been paying that close attention though ?. It does seem pretty clear that stronger factions arent just running through weak factions castles and taking them all like in the past, they seem to prefer to attempt to siege the border cities which gives the weaker factions opportunities to defend and win.
| Test 5 1.5.8 | Test 5 10 yrs | Test 5 20 yrs | 20 yr Strength | Original Clans | Recruited Clans | Rebel Clans | Mercenaries | Total Noble Clans | Total Clans w/ MERCs |
| Aserai | 21 | 22 | 7858 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| Battania | 6 | 4 | 2643 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Khuzait | 40 | 31 | 5124 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| Northern | 13 | 12 | 5219 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Southern | 21 | 20 | 3895 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Western | 17 | 27 | 5620 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| Sturgia | 15 | 19 | 3802 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Vlandia | 40 | 38 | 7380 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 |
| Snowball score | 39 | 28 |
