I'll do 20 year tests tomorrow (probably 3 of them).
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Information about developments at snowballing problem
- Thread starter mexxico
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Dabos37
Sergeant Knight at Arms
I have started a second run and things look better in this campaign at the beginning but I have the feeling that there have been an insanely amount of War and Peace declarations the first 50 days. All initial wars have stopped and now all kingdoms are involved in different wars than the initial ones. Even Vlandia has made peace with Sturgia prettt early which was really really weird to see in 1.5.5.
I am 99,9% sure that something has changed related to war/peace declarations.
Edit1: I am looking pretty short wars now in 1.5.6. Plus a lot of weird wars like Sturgia going to war against WE and SE at day 70 or so. Please, someone confirms if looking the same in your campaigns.
Edit2: While the number of war/peace declarations look like have been increased by a lot, my current second run is going much better. Dat 140 currently and everything is looking pretty decent. A lot of fiefs have been conquered but re-ated by original owners after some time. I am also noticing a change in the campaign AI, Khuzatis created 3 armies and besieged 4 NE fiefs at the same time (one of this fiefs was besiegeg by Monchung alone)!, and NE was ablle to repeal 3 of 4 fiefs which was prety amazing to see.
I am also noticing that the AI takes much more risks now when besiege settlements, for example:
Not sure if this change is good or not for snowballing (maybe something related to people complained due to lack defensive sieges).
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Dabos37
Sergeant Knight at Arms
I have run 3 tests (tested just 3 early game campaigns) and I think I have now some solid information to provide concerning what I have seen in all of them. I am going to decribe the 100 first days of my last run:
- Day 23 - NE was being able to hold pretty good against Khuzaits, but then received war declaration from Sturgia and WE (Sturgia made peace with Vlandia pretty early, same for WE making peace early with Battania, and same for Aserai making peace pretty early with SE). The result, NE at war against 3 Kingdoms at 23 which only were at war against NE...
- Day 28 - NE is still at war against 3 factions, and lost 2 castles (Khuzait took Syratos while Sturgia took Mecalovea)
- Day 31 - NE made peace with Khuzaits
- Day 35 - Aserai and Vlandia declared war on WE (Now WE is the one fighting against 3 factions - NE, Vlandia, and Aserai -)
- Day 38 - Asewai and WE made peace
- Day 40 - Vlandia took Thractorae castle from WE
- Day 41 - Battania declared war on Vlandia
- Day 42 - Vlandian and WE made Peace
- Day 42 - Khuzait declared war on SE
- Day 49 - Sturgia took Spinosa Castle from NE (NE is still at war against Sturgia and WE, while these factions are now just at war against NE)
- Day 50 - Aserai declared war on SE (SE now at war against Khuzaits and Aserai, while these factions are just at war only with SE)
- Day 52 - NE re-take Mecalovea castle and made peace with Sturgia (meanwhile, Vlandia was losing war against Battania and lost Rovalt)
- Day 58 - SE lost fiefs (Onira was taken by Khuzaits while Levania Castle was taken by Aserai... SE was still at war against both factions at the same time while these factions just at war against SE)
- Day 59 - Sturgia declared war on Battania (thanks god they did not declared war on Vlandia which was losing the war against Battania)
- Day 61 - Vlandia re-take Rovalt and made peace with Battania
- Day 62 - NE took Lageta from WE while WE took Diathma from NE
- Day 64 - WE declared war on Aserai
- Day 65 - Aserai took Vostrum from SE (SE still at war against Khuzatis and Aserai at the same time, but at least Aserai is now also at war against WE too)
- Day 66 - NE and WE made peace
- Day 67 - SE and Aserai made peace (too late after losing 3 fiefs)
- Day 68 - Khuzaits declared war on NE (now Khuzaits at war against NE and SE at the same tiem)
- Day 69 - WE declared war on SE (now SE at war against WE and Khuzatis at the same tiem, but Khuzaits are also involved in two wars, while WE too because it is still at war vs Aserai)
- Day 70 - WE and SE made peace
- Day 72 - Khuzaits and SE made peace and now they are just at war agaisnt one faction (NE) as usual... Monchug should be the best strategist in Calradia because he is always ganking other factions while it is pretty weird to see Khuzaits involved in two fronts wars.
- Day 87 - NE was doing pretty well against Khuzaits in a 1v1 war but for some reason... Why
... NE decided to declare war on WE... At least WE were also at war against Aserai in that moment.
- Day 95 - WE re-take Lageta from NE (Lucon and his pretty silly decision to declare war on WE...)
- Day 96 - After some days of peace, Vlandia declared war on Battania, and now Battania is at war with Vlandia and Sturgia at the same time (the war between Sturgia and Battania has been pretty even)
- Day 97 - Sturgia and Battania made peace
- Day 99 - NE re-take Diathma from WE and was able to break a Khuzait siege on Amprela (good for Lucon this time)
- Day 100 - WE besieged Diathma and I do not now the result because stopped to check the campaign. Here you have a screen at day 100:
Some conclusions:
I am going to sleep now but let the game running and check tomorrow how is snowballing.
- Day 23 - NE was being able to hold pretty good against Khuzaits, but then received war declaration from Sturgia and WE (Sturgia made peace with Vlandia pretty early, same for WE making peace early with Battania, and same for Aserai making peace pretty early with SE). The result, NE at war against 3 Kingdoms at 23 which only were at war against NE...
- Day 28 - NE is still at war against 3 factions, and lost 2 castles (Khuzait took Syratos while Sturgia took Mecalovea)
- Day 31 - NE made peace with Khuzaits
- Day 35 - Aserai and Vlandia declared war on WE (Now WE is the one fighting against 3 factions - NE, Vlandia, and Aserai -)
- Day 38 - Asewai and WE made peace
- Day 40 - Vlandia took Thractorae castle from WE
- Day 41 - Battania declared war on Vlandia
- Day 42 - Vlandian and WE made Peace
- Day 42 - Khuzait declared war on SE
- Day 49 - Sturgia took Spinosa Castle from NE (NE is still at war against Sturgia and WE, while these factions are now just at war against NE)
- Day 50 - Aserai declared war on SE (SE now at war against Khuzaits and Aserai, while these factions are just at war only with SE)
- Day 52 - NE re-take Mecalovea castle and made peace with Sturgia (meanwhile, Vlandia was losing war against Battania and lost Rovalt)
- Day 58 - SE lost fiefs (Onira was taken by Khuzaits while Levania Castle was taken by Aserai... SE was still at war against both factions at the same time while these factions just at war against SE)
- Day 59 - Sturgia declared war on Battania (thanks god they did not declared war on Vlandia which was losing the war against Battania)
- Day 61 - Vlandia re-take Rovalt and made peace with Battania
- Day 62 - NE took Lageta from WE while WE took Diathma from NE
- Day 64 - WE declared war on Aserai
- Day 65 - Aserai took Vostrum from SE (SE still at war against Khuzatis and Aserai at the same time, but at least Aserai is now also at war against WE too)
- Day 66 - NE and WE made peace
- Day 67 - SE and Aserai made peace (too late after losing 3 fiefs)
- Day 68 - Khuzaits declared war on NE (now Khuzaits at war against NE and SE at the same tiem)
- Day 69 - WE declared war on SE (now SE at war against WE and Khuzatis at the same tiem, but Khuzaits are also involved in two wars, while WE too because it is still at war vs Aserai)
- Day 70 - WE and SE made peace
- Day 72 - Khuzaits and SE made peace and now they are just at war agaisnt one faction (NE) as usual... Monchug should be the best strategist in Calradia because he is always ganking other factions while it is pretty weird to see Khuzaits involved in two fronts wars.
- Day 87 - NE was doing pretty well against Khuzaits in a 1v1 war but for some reason... Why
... NE decided to declare war on WE... At least WE were also at war against Aserai in that moment.- Day 95 - WE re-take Lageta from NE (Lucon and his pretty silly decision to declare war on WE...)
- Day 96 - After some days of peace, Vlandia declared war on Battania, and now Battania is at war with Vlandia and Sturgia at the same time (the war between Sturgia and Battania has been pretty even)
- Day 97 - Sturgia and Battania made peace
- Day 99 - NE re-take Diathma from WE and was able to break a Khuzait siege on Amprela (good for Lucon this time)
- Day 100 - WE besieged Diathma and I do not now the result because stopped to check the campaign. Here you have a screen at day 100:
Some conclusions:
- The number of war/peace declarations have been drastically increased and wars last for just few days now. I personaly do not like this change, not sure if it is improving or making worse snowballing, but I do not like that now all wars feel pretty random and short. In 1.5.5 we had some wars lasting for a lot of time, which feels much better than tons of +-20 days wars. Especially in the first 50-60 days, we can see an insane amount of wars.
- Empire factions love to go to war against a lot of enemies at the same time. I cannot see this behavior in other kingdoms or at least it is not as common as it is for Empire Kingdoms... Maybe the increased chance for declaring war to Kingdoms having fiefs with the same culture is making the Empire ingdoms to bee stupidly aggressive. Makes sense to declare war to factions having fiefs of the same culture because this allows to re-take fiefs but it does not make anything good for the Empire Kingdoms. Would be great if Empire factions would not be so much aggressive as they are now.
- We have now less consistent wars between kingdoms which are far away from each ones. This is probably something related to kingdoms declaring tons of wars and making peace in a short time (maybe because the AI tries to honor the truce and then declares war on other kingdoms which are not close). I did not see this in my last run though but it happened in the first and second run.
- The AI looks now less cautious when attacking settlements. This is probably good for people asking for more defensive sieges but, is this better or worse for snowballing (maybe better because fiefs are easier to defend against smaller forces but hard to say...?
- Khuzaits do not feel as OP as before when fighting 1vs1 wars. The problem is that Khuzaits have always a pretty easy time on ganking Sturgia, NE or SE while these factions are already involved in other wars. Applying the Mexxico's mentioned changes about cavalry, forcing the AI to try to siege closer enemy fiefs and making Empire Factions less retard to avoid them constantly going to war against 2 or 3 factions, will probably improve a lot snowballing.
- I have to say that snowballing feels much better now, at least on the first 300 days... I do not like the pretty short wars though and I think it is not good for snowballing. Having less war/peace declarations and much longer wars would be better for sure.
- Sturgia finally feels strong! at least in the first 300 days.
I am going to sleep now but let the game running and check tomorrow how is snowballing.
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@Dabos37 thanks for all data you provided. There was a bug at evaluating value for war and peace. When player is only himself he was easily attack a lord then making peace with barter and being paid. You can see exploit here : This is fixed and while fixing maybe war & peace counts can be increased. Actually we made some works with @Blood Gryphon to reduce war declerations but this part is so fragile any small addition can create new problems. Actually we see that problem and reduced declerations but after this it seems it increased again with new additions.
I see that problem yesterday (declerations were 25% more compared to 1.5.5 and average war durations were 25% shorter) and was working on that, it is nearly finished. We can send a small hotfix at monday or tuesday to reduce number of war declerations. Also kingdoms which lost their territories and have a average/good lord strength was so agressive in war declerations I also fixed that but not send.
Also please notice that while doing tests you should run game by leaving faction. If you are inside any faction they make less peace declerations than normal to let player decide what to do (player can initiate votings (by spending influence)). So if you run game inside a faction you reduce chance of making peace for that faction. I collect data while I am not member of any factions. You can join them to see what they are doing but before pressing fastforward you should leave them to collect better data.
I see that problem yesterday (declerations were 25% more compared to 1.5.5 and average war durations were 25% shorter) and was working on that, it is nearly finished. We can send a small hotfix at monday or tuesday to reduce number of war declerations. Also kingdoms which lost their territories and have a average/good lord strength was so agressive in war declerations I also fixed that but not send.
Also please notice that while doing tests you should run game by leaving faction. If you are inside any faction they make less peace declerations than normal to let player decide what to do (player can initiate votings (by spending influence)). So if you run game inside a faction you reduce chance of making peace for that faction. I collect data while I am not member of any factions. You can join them to see what they are doing but before pressing fastforward you should leave them to collect better data.
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This will, over time, bias their parties towards cavalry even more than now. Any time a foot unit dies, it is a chance to have it replaced by cavalry. Since low tier units die much more often in autocalc, infantry will cycle much faster (even in winning fights) and quickly churn into cavalry, making the party speed that much faster.
I also realized that a conflating factor at this point is AI marriages; after twenty years or so, most factions will have Khuzait culture nobles in them due to children inheriting the culture of the same gender parent, female clan heads staying put when marrying and defections to other kingdoms.
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Dabos37
Sergeant Knight at Arms
Thanks! I take the change to share a 20 years campaign screen:
And yes, I do not join any faction, I just wait close to a Khuzaits town because I am too lazy to enable the cheat to avoind the AI attacking me.
I will do further tests when the mentioned bugs get fixed, but even in the current state, it looks pretty much better than berfore. All factions are alive and I have seen the same Khuzaits snowballing level in 800 days campaigns before this patch.
Below you can see a screen at day 1268 in the say campaign which looks pretty damn good:
Most of kingdoms were able to hold most of their territory for a lot of time. Looking forward to see the result of the bugfixes and further small nerfs for Khuzaits. Thank you very much for this!
What do you think, more tests or wait until hotfix?
It can be good we have several test results before hotfix. Then we can collect new samples after hotfix and we can compare them.
Currently we have 2 test results from 1.5.6 and @Dabos37's analsyses.
@mexxico I know it may be early with death not fixed but here is my first 1.5.6 20 year test
Score---------Year 10---Year 20
Aserai-------------28---------31
Battania----------36 --------47
Khuzuit-----------31---------46
N Empire---------16----------9
S Empire---------12----------6
Sturgia------------16 --------12
Vlandia-----------15---------15
W Empire--------19----------8
Score---------Year 10---Year 20
Aserai-------------28---------31
Battania----------36 --------47
Khuzuit-----------31---------46
N Empire---------16----------9
S Empire---------12----------6
Sturgia------------16 --------12
Vlandia-----------15---------15
W Empire--------19----------8
Thank you. Does Vlandia has lots of (13) castles or do they have more towns in unseen part of map? I see only 1 town they have. How they have 15 fief points? While calculating we count towns as 2 and castles as 1. Your test results : 10 year snowballing score = 23, 20 year snowballing score is = 73
Yes sir
Seems to me the snowballing got worse, not better with this new update.
When I watched it, there was a lot of fiefs changing hands but the original owner came back and took it early on, but slowly as time went on the usual people slowly overwhelmed everyone and there were a ton of rebellions but they can't hold onto them.
All in All, the changes were better, the normal people did take over, but it took them a lot longer than in 1.5.5
This 20 year test seems to be about 10-15 years in 1.5.5 so a improvement for sure
All in All, the changes were better, the normal people did take over, but it took them a lot longer than in 1.5.5
This 20 year test seems to be about 10-15 years in 1.5.5 so a improvement for sure
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Dabos37
Sergeant Knight at Arms
You have had a bad lucky campaign maybe. In my first run something happened and SE got ganked by 4 kingdoms and lost 5 fiefs in no time. But even with the current issues, snowballing is infinitely better in 1.5.6 IMO.
+1
Absolute step in the right direction
One 5-10 year run does not prove anything, world is so dynamic and each game goes in different direction. Thats why we are collecting several samples from different players and we are taking average of at least 5 different runs and find a snowballing score from 20th year of game. So we have valid evidence of how things are improved or not. Thanks to everybody who sent samples. 1.5.5 sampes are still on previous pages, anytime everybody can compare results.
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Its good to see that Battania got crushed early. Thats definitely different than everything since the first patch or two.
Since it differs so much, I think the goal is achieved? You don't have the usuall snowballers or?
Edit:OK except khuzaits as always XD.
Edit:OK except khuzaits as always XD.
