I don't think math works this way TW

[somethinglightthat]

Then you CAN be sure you were scummed.

Or at least you would believe so, and so would I. The percentages do seem to be BS.

That doesn't mean they are, but you know, perception is reality most of the time.

The bigger problem is that either

I accept the result
or
I reload a save until I get what I want

and if I can reload a save until I get what I want, why don't I just have the choice to get what I want without the headache?

There needs to be some minigame here rather than just some coin toss that results in the above nonsense, imo. You could play said game until you win, maybe the game is easier with higher charm, traits or whatever.

 

[MostBlunted]

There needs to be some minigame here rather than just some coin toss that results in the above nonsense, imo. You could play said game until you win, maybe the game is easier with higher charm, traits or whatever.

This would be better than the current system, so it won´t come.

 

[geala]

Don't take this the wrong way, but it seems like it is you who have some mathematical misconceptions. 70%, according to Statistics, does not mean you ought to have the desired outcome 7 times for every 10 times tried.
What it means is that, for a very large set of trials, at 70% statiscal percentage chance of success, the results distribution should approach 7 success for every 10 tries.

"7 out of 10 times you must succeed" is dangerously close to Gambler's Fallacy

In my opinion the hint to Gambler's Fallacy in this context, or in similar statistical matters, is wrong or at least not adequate. Gambler's Fallacy applies to a single event which is not influenced by past events even if one likes to think so. A statistical percentage refers to a big number of events, and if it is given in a game it has to have influence. If you have a 70:30 chance, it will be the same chance for any try all the times, true. There could be rows where you always lose or lose more than in 30%. But such rows are of such a low probability that the assumption of wrong math (or insufficiently described math) is much more probable than thinking of bad luck, the higher the number of trials are.

 

[somethinglightthat]

I would just add that in playing around with random number generators over the years that I was always amused at just how often computers would give results that don't line up the way you would think, or even the way you would expect from real world objects. I guess what I'm trying to say is that if I flip a coin X number of times I would actually get something closer to 50/50 than if I ask a computer to do the same thing. I noticed this with dice rolls back in time with tabletop dice roll simulators. You could roll actual dice and it was one thing, ask a computer to do it and the results were usually worse most of the time. It's strange. It probably has to do with things not actually being random, programming, and so on, but that's way too long a topic that starts to throw a real twist into more straightforward observations on statistical probability.

It should not be so, obviously, but that does not mean it is not so.

 

[Ananda_The_Destroyer]

I hate it too but it's obviously unfinished so I'll let it wudever for now. I think the the red failure chance is a 'critical failure' chance, but it's the same as regular failure, probablysome unfinished idea. I've had good luck with the marriage talks by picking options that correspond to the person's traits and not mine. I don't know if it's really something to it or not though. One time I had to save scum so many time I though they had patched it or something but I finally got through. Was awful.

 

[helari]

You don't actually see any pattern in the rng. You're experiencing placebo. Deducing the pattern of even some of the weakest commonly used random number generators requires a lot of processing. Thankfully you can probably go look at the rng algorithm in the games code, the game seemingly has its own rng function.

edit: roughly 7 out of 10 times you must succeed isn't really true, 70 % chance of success means that there's an infinitely decreasing chance of failure (initially 30 %) as the amount of rolls made increases, there's still a chance that you will practically never succeed in that roll.

edit2: I think the chance of fail and chance of success in persuasion mean that a success fulfills 1 of the required amounts of succesfull persuasion rolls and a failure removes one success, setting you back. The roll can also have a neutral result which doesn't help or set you back (but if you don't fulfill the required rolls you will essentially fail).

 

[Wulfsdottir]

You don't actually see any pattern in the rng. You're experiencing placebo. Deducing the pattern of even some of the weakest commonly used random number generators requires a lot of processing. Thankfully you can probably go look at the rng algorithm in the games code, the game seemingly has its own rng function.

edit: roughly 7 out of 10 times you must succeed isn't really true, 70 % chance of success means that there's an infinitely decreasing chance of failure (initially 30 %) as the amount of rolls made increases, there's still a chance that you will practically never succeed in that roll.

edit2: I think the chance of fail and chance of success in persuasion mean that a success fulfills 1 of the required amounts of succesfull persuasion rolls and a failure removes one success, setting you back. The roll can also have a neutral result which doesn't help or set you back (but if you don't fulfill the required rolls you will essentially fail).

We have discussed the how probability works and that's not what I mean.
What I mean is that the game represents your chances in a wrong kind of way.

When the game tells you that if you do X thing, you will have 70+ % chance of getting success and 30% chance to getting failure - this means that you're much more likely to succeed than to fail. But when after 30 lines of dialogue you get success only 2 times, you have every reason to believe that it fed you the wrong information when it told you that you will most probably succeed.

It's either totally random for now, or just way off.

 

[Wulfsdottir]

Or at least you would believe so, and so would I. The percentages do seem to be BS.

That doesn't mean they are, but you know, perception is reality most of the time.

The bigger problem is that either

I accept the result
or
I reload a save until I get what I want

and if I can reload a save until I get what I want, why don't I just have the choice to get what I want without the headache?

There needs to be some minigame here rather than just some coin toss that results in the above nonsense, imo. You could play said game until you win, maybe the game is easier with higher charm, traits or whatever.

Agreed.
Minigame would be nice. Also the rng should be masked under meaningful immersive text, rather than showing numbers and traits should DEFINITELY play the role here.

Only the high charm shouldn't be enough though. How well the two persons' traits work with each other should be considered as well. For example, if my character is honorable, it must be easier to get on the same foot with another honorable character, but devious one would care nothing about my honor. Maybe even opposite.

 

[guiskj]

@Wulfsdottir, you have a very good point. My apologies for derailing things a bit with Statistical conversation.

I 100% agree with you that the way your options are presented is bad.

Firstly, it gives you a false sense of confidence in success. One of my favourite Bannerlord YouTuber is ReformistTM and I have lost count the number of times he goes "90% chance!!! How could I have not passed that check??"

Secondly, it completely destroys role-playing. All my characters play as complete blank-slate manipulators, saying whatever would get them to convince the NPC of what my character wants. And based from what I have seen in let's play videos,this goes for many other people. This is exacerbated specially in quests, where you have to try ALL options before the dialog ends. (I'm looking at you "missing daughter quest"...)

 

[Yabloko]

That's how true randomness works, it's unpredictable. Similar thing happens in XCOM games, 70% looks more likely than it actually is and people get understandably pissed. I don't know if the randomness generator works properly but if my math isn't wrong there's something like 1/50k chances of getting 30 consecutive failures with a 70% of success (someone will probably correct me on that). There being somewhere between 5 and 10 million Bannerlord users it's not impossible that someone would get this result. If you savescum several times and still get so many failures then there's probably something wrong.
Generally speaking I dislike chance-based skill passes for precisely this reason. I would rather have some sort of system like lockpicking in the elders scrolls (but pribably turned up to eleven) where you can attempt any charisma check but it gets increasinly more difficult to achieve the less skilled you are.

 

[Wulfsdottir]

Generally speaking I dislike chance-based skill passes for precisely this reason. I would rather have some sort of system like lockpicking in the elders scrolls (but pribably turned up to eleven) where you can attempt any charisma check but it gets increasinly more difficult to achieve the less skilled you are.

Yes, It should definitely be based on skills and the way you role-play your character

@Wulfsdottir, you have a very good point. My apologies for derailing things a bit with Statistical conversation.

I 100% agree with you that the way your options are presented is bad.

Firstly, it gives you a false sense of confidence in success. One of my favourite Bannerlord YouTuber is ReformistTM and I have lost count the number of times he goes "90% chance!!! How could I have not passed that check??"

Secondly, it completely destroys role-playing. All my characters play as complete blank-slate manipulators, saying whatever would get them to convince the NPC of what my character wants. And based from what I have seen in let's play videos,this goes for many other people. This is exacerbated specially in quests, where you have to try ALL options before the dialog ends. (I'm looking at you "missing daughter quest"...)

Yup. Completely agree. And missing daughter quest is excellent example.

 

[MostBlunted]

I recommend the game Blood Bowl 2 for all players who are annoyed of RNG .

It´s really fun if you just need to roll a 2+ (with a reroll) on 6 sided dice to win the game in your last turn. What "usually" happens, you roll 2 x 1. That´s real rage.

But the game is still awesome .

 

[Wulfsdottir]

I recommend the game Blood Bowl 2 for all players who are annoyed of RNG .

It´s really fun if you just need to roll a 2+ (with a reroll) on 6 sided dice to win the game in your last turn. What "usually" happens, you roll 2 x 1. That´s real rage.

But the game is still awesome .

From what I saw it looks like a mix of Warhammer and American Football :p
Not the fun of either of those things, so I'll give it a pass, but thanks for suggestion anyway ^_^

 

[9yearsago]

Bruh .dude. Bruh it's ea they're learning maths it's ea dude be patient wtf

Brilliant.

 

[MostBlunted]

 

[artemis_entreri]

Or at least you would believe so, and so would I. The percentages do seem to be BS.

That doesn't mean they are, but you know, perception is reality most of the time.

The bigger problem is that either

I accept the result
or
I reload a save until I get what I want

and if I can reload a save until I get what I want, why don't I just have the choice to get what I want without the headache?

There needs to be some minigame here rather than just some coin toss that results in the above nonsense, imo. You could play said game until you win, maybe the game is easier with higher charm, traits or whatever.

I think we need to be able to try multiple times, or be able to perform some action/task that allows us another shot. 1 and done leads to save scumming and ruins the game experience. Applies to both Marriage and Recruiting lords. Lord recruiting needs some serious work, it seems to be all over the place with no meaningful way (that I've found) to influence. I've tried Charm and Relation thus far. Unsure of what other variables to try.

 

[MostBlunted]

It also could just be a skill/relation check like:

- You need relation X with the father/clan/kingdom (one of those or combined) of the women you want to marry
- You need charm skill level X, make it related to the traits (let´s just assume they work), if you share the same traits you need a lower charm level
- Your clan level also can have influence on this

Maybe with some optional stuff like (this could be random in each playthrough):

- Woman X wants you to win a tournament
- Woman Y wants you to win a "big" battle (like a battle with at least 50 troops on your AND the enemy side)
- Woman Z wants you to hunt down X bandit parties

Stuff like this.

If you don´t have the needed level/relations you just don´t get the option to marry the woman, if you have it then it just works.

Of course the woman should tell you what is still needed like "I would marry you but before you need to win a tournament" or "Sorry, my father don´t like you", or "This is a generic marriage" (just kidding).

With the current system even a 99% chance could fail (rarely of course) but it just feels wrong.

 

[artemis_entreri]

It also could just be a skill/relation check like:

- You need relation X with the father/clan/kingdom (one of those or combined) of the women you want to marry
- You need charm skill level X, make it related to the traits (let´s just assume they work), if you share the same traits you need a lower charm level
- Your clan level also can have influence on this

Maybe with some optional stuff like (this could be random in each playthrough):

- Woman X wants you to win a tournament
- Woman Y wants you to win a "big" battle (like a battle with at least 50 troops on your AND the enemy side)
- Woman Z wants you to hunt down X bandit parties

Stuff like this.

If you don´t have the needed level/relations you just don´t get the option to marry the woman, if you have it then it just works.

Of course the woman should tell you what is still needed like "I would marry you but before you need to win a tournament" or "Sorry, my father don´t like you", or "This is a generic marriage" (just kidding).

With the current system even a 99% chance could fail (rarely of course) but it just feels wrong.

Are traits currently a factor? I've played far too many hours and have yet to figure out the Lord Recruitment and Marriage equation.

 

[MostBlunted]

Are traits currently a factor?

Not really.

 

[Killer Kitten]

I would agree it is fairly broken. It certainly isn't succeeding as often as it should.