How do the AI pick between to equally weak kingdom which one to declare war on?

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FuseiN

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In my current playthrough (vlandia + half of battania) there are two kingdoms that are equally weak : battania, my intended target, and the w.empire, I don't want to go in the middle of the map right now. Kinda burning my influence to refuse a war every 30 days or so.

Yet my vassals insist on declaring war on the w.empire. Is it like a coin toss? Two equally weak kingdoms, pick one randomly? Is there some kind of other hidden weighting factors?
 
Do you have existing peace terms with either Battania or WE (paying or receiving tribute)? The AI preference for war seems to be determined more by "who can we get more tribute from/pay less tribute to" than land acquisition. So if Battania and WE are exactly equivalent in terms of strength, but your lords think the peace terms with one is less advantageous than with the other, that's who they'll want to wage war on.
 
Random chance if it's actually equal. But having clans with influence near one faction may increase the chance of the voting for war there. They need influence to ask for war and I think they consider targets they would want (doesn't mean they'll do anything about it though). This is just judging what vassal DO, I have no idea what the code it's self does.
 
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