Thanks. Btw, some hours after posting, I realized for windows/ntfs the spelling is not important, B or b should have been fine. I did not correct this, because I assumed worst case it would have been wasting less then a minute or so. Sorry for that.
Do you know or is Event Viewer giving you any information, why bannerlord.exe isn't running? As I understand, the launcher is loading bannerlord.exe as a dependency as startup. If bannerlord.exe fails to start, it might be, because it (or one of its dependencies) fails to load, which would affect the launcher starting up. (After doing some more testing, I am not 100% positive about this part. But the launcher definitely depends at some point on bannerlord.exe)
Or in other words: my working theory is: when bannerlord.exe will be able to run, then the launcher should be able to run. Assuming I am correct in Bannerlord.exe being the problem. On the other hand, it could be something, both the launcher and bannerlord.exe are depending on.
After playing with WinDbg myself: did you set the Working Directory (or Start Directory, as WinDbg calls it)? It's important, that the "Working Directory" is set to the directory, where the launcher is in. Otherwise, the will show an log, which may imply bannerlord.exe was not found.
For me the launcher is working, but got almost the same output, when I did not set Working Directory/Start Directory. You can do it by using the "Launch executable (advanced)" option.
Just in case: If you or Taleworlds wishes me to stop, just say so. I didn't see anything in the rules banning other people helping here (or at least try) and for some reason, I think I may be helpful.