Yes you've quoted it ad nauseum but it doesn't seem like you've read it yet.
If you read what I said, you'd see that I did use those numbers.
On the contrary, from your post
here it's clear there's some misunderstanding on your end of what mexxico's post means. Here is the picture again (ad nauseam):
Best case numbers outside of a dungeon are 22.5% escape chance per day. That's best case.
Look closely at the part where he describes the player advantage. In the green comment text in parentheses it states "(7.5%-22.5% mobile party, 3.75% settlement)." The mistake you've made in your post is not applying the 0.33x multiplier for player parties. Using the numbers in the code's comment you get a worst case scenario of (1/.225) = 4.4 days average time to escape from a mobile players party and a best case scenario of (1/.075) = 13.3 days. Now, 45% * 0.33 is not 22.5% as shown, so the worst case scenario might actually be
better than stated.
Now you might say, "but 4.4 days is practically nothing! You could never make it back to your settlement in 4.4 days!" Well I just did a quick test and I was able to make it from Baltakand to Odokh in less than 2 days with a walking speed of roughly 6.1, and then down to Razih in another 2.5, for a total of just over 4 days. That's a pretty significant distance. Think about how far you could walk in 13.3.
So if I have to walk 4 days to
my settlement I can expect to safely get there with around half of all the lords I've taken (worst case scenario).
Then, you can roughly expect to keep half of
those lords for ~26 days. That means very roughly 25% of lords will be imprisoned for 4+26 =
30 days. 25% is
not 1%, so it's
not an edge case.
You might also say, "no one is going to walk all the way back to their settlement when they're on the offensive!" But that's actually part of the point. Mobile party escape chances are lower so you can't capture all the lords of a faction then take 2-3 settlements before they've had a chance to escape. You can always drop them off in a friendly settlement that's closer for a higher chance of escape, but at that point you've relinquished control of the lord and they'll probably get sold before they escape.
And before you say it, obviously AI parties have higher chances for escape, but they end up selling many of their imprisoned lords anyway so the escape chances are less relevent. That's a different issue than escape chances.
No need to reply and say 25-30 days is not the average you'll see in a real in-game scenario because no one made that point in the first place and no one is refuting your point that conditions are never perfect either.
Personally, I actually don't have much trouble getting lords to my settlements most of the time,
especially if I'm on the defensive which you've neglected entirely. So bam, counterpoint.
It's a rare edge case that is pointless to bring up. Seems like you're just arguing for the sake of it, deliberately missing the point and calling me a troll.
I actually addressed your point when I said this:
Sure obviously when you factor in the separate chance to escape from a mobile party the math changes a bit, but no one anywhere said it was 25-30 days when taken as a whole. Everyone specifically said it's 25-30 days if imprisoned within a walled settlement (or "dungeon" in Blood Gryphon's case).
And yes, there may have been some confusion around "a settlement" as opposed to "your settlement," but Blood Gryphon already stated that they were going off memory alone, so I brought in some precise numbers from the devs to clarify.
Look, all I was trying to do in the first place was get the dev's words out there so people have accurate information. I didn't even intend to keep arguing, but you kept
insisting the lords were escaping almost immediately in 99% of cases, accusing people of making things up in the process, so I kept pointing to the code so people don't get the wrong idea (
maybe a tiny bit of a pride thing too, haha). I also realize I'm continuing to derail this thread by continuing to respond to you, so sorry to everyone for that.
I acually don't have an issue if you think the escape chance should be lowered and snowballing is a non-factor. You are entitled to your opinion. However, overly-dramatic hyperbole is not useful feedback to the devs, and is in fact counterproductive because it can cause confusion as to whether or not there is a problem or bug.
Also, apologies for implying you were trolling me if you were in fact being dead serious.
This is not an acknowledgement of the whack-a-mole issue with AI getting free armies.
But that's not what you were talking about originally when you said:
They escape way too fast and I've seen no acknowledgement of the issue. On the contrary, it keeps being implied that the fast escape rate is necessary. Well I don't agree that it is necessary, I think this assertion needs to be challenged, especially after changes that have made garrisons bigger, which should make sieges more costly.
You were talking specifically about escape chances,
not AI getting free armies. But that point has
also been acknowledged in another comment of mexxico's I quoted in my original comment in this thread.
-npc lords are spawning with 25% of their part size is filled (this will decrease to 10% soon)
They know 25% is a lot and will be lowering it to 10% soon. Give it time.
Many of these patches are about bringing the major issues within the tolerance levels of the majority while they work on implementing all of the features. Just because they've made a balance decision for now doesn't mean they won't address it again later.
I agree with Gryphon on your test about snowballing. The second picture shows the factions are able to conquer much further away from their territory. Plus, there is variance to any campaign, so one test can hardly be considered conclusive. Also, snowballing was the number one issue for a lot of people a couple weeks ago. This has been toned down, but the devs are not going to continue to micromanage the numbers to strike a perfect balance at this point.