Shhh get outa here with that logic, you have to agree or get out, it's early access quit giving feedback
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Does the AI get instant armies?
- 主题发起人 Dionaea
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Shhh get outa here with that logic, you have to agree or get out, it's early access quit giving feedback
durbal
Sergeant
If those numbers are from a dev he did his calculations wrong (I never saw a dev say that directly, so I'm guessing people just misconstrue stuff). A 50% lower chance to escape is not a 50% longer time spent imprisoned. The average days to escape is a geometric distribution and is just the simple equation of 1/p where p is the probability to escape each day.
mexxico is a dev. I've quoted his comment in here several times, but I'll quote the whole thing again (including snippet of code):
If you feel he programmed this incorrectly or did his calculations wrong then you can relay that to him, but Blood Gryphon didn't make it up.Daily escape chance from walled settlement : will decrease to 7.5% from 10% (with 1.3.0)
Daily escape chance from mobile party : will decrease to 22.5%-45% from 30%-60% (with 1.3.0) (30% from a party with more than 81 healthy men, 60% from 0 healthy man party)
If player is capturer probabilities are multiplied with 0.33 if mobile (was there since EA), 0.5 if prisoner is at player's walled settlement (new at 1.3.0)
So with 1.3.0 if you place your prisoner to one of your walled settlements escaping chance of prisoner will be 3.75% daily means nearly 25-30 days of average prisoned time.
We know this escaping thing is disturbing. When new heroes are added to game these probabilities will be decresed very much. Currently there is no replacements so it is risky to reduce daily escape chance to 2.5%s this can cause kingdoms to lose lots of settlements after losing one big army battle.
Edit: FYI, (1/.0375) = 26.67.
drallim33
Sergeant
Err sure if you put them in a town that you own personally, but how often will that happen? You're not going to go halfway across the map just to extend the time they stay imprisoned by a day or two, and if you try they will escape before you get there. If you're in an army most of the prisoners will go to AI lords and will have the higher escape chance anyway.
20-30 days average time is nonsense, that will only happen if you personally capture a lord right next to one of your own fiefs.
Not sure I agree with that. They plan to bring in extra new lords to replace the old ones. So you will just end up fighting a never ending stream of fresh lords instead of the same ones over and over. Maybe there is more to their plans than that but it doesn't sound like it really addresses the issue. The plan seems to be to replace the current obnoxious system with another, slightly different, but equally obnoxious system. I'll reserve judgement on that until I actually see what they do though.
Sure obviously when you factor in the separate chance to escape from a mobile party the math changes a bit, but no one anywhere said it was 25-30 days when taken as a whole. Everyone specifically said it's 25-30 days if imprisoned within a walled settlement (or "dungeon" in Blood Gryphon's case).
Edit: I guess technically Blood Gryphon said a dungeon rather than your dungeon, but is that even worth responding to, lol?
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durbal
Sergeant
Where did he say the average time to escape is 20-26 days? It's a maximum of 26 days basically only if you capture a prisoner and put him into your own fief instantly. It rarely if ever happens.
I also don't like the idea of a 'player advantage'. I'm in an army and we defeat 8 enemy lords, including the ruler and some leaders from the largest clans. 2 of them are captured by me and 6 by my AI allies. We continue marching on to our objective 2 days away. In those two days, how many lords do you think will still be captured? Let's say our objective is a castle that we're sieging. We begin the siege and assault on the third day, so 5 days spent from the time we defeated an enemy army. Now how many lords do you think will still be captured? Probably almost none.
Yeah...I'm hoping that's not what is proposed as solution...
It's not 25-30 days on average. The average escape time maxes out at 26 days and that's in a situation that basically never occurs. In almost all practical situations that number is significantly less.
At this point it's almost better to just kill 80% of a lord's army than it is to wipe them out and capture them.
durbal
Sergeant
His math is off then. Not calling him out and he probably did the calculations then pulled out a guess from what he remembers or something, but I hope they're not basing their expected results from those numbers because they won't match expectations.
drallim33
Sergeant
Think this is just a technicality. The overall tone was that escape chance is very low, but it's not in regular gameplay. In normal play lords escape very quickly. When conditions are perfect you can keep one or two imprisoned for 30 days.
If you're in a 10-lord army that captures 10 enemy lords, they will escape extremely fast. Some of those lords will not have 80+ healthy men, you will leak prisoners like a sieve.
Sorry, I just really don't know where this is coming from, haha. Clearly he says "if you place your prisoner to one of your walled settlements..."
To me that indicates that he's aware that 25-30 days is only in the case the lord is in your settlement, so he's not basing his total average imprisonment time on those expectations. It's just an example for those who are not math whizzes and won't understand what 3.75% amounts to.
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Lol, I don't know what else to say man. Those numbers were chosen as a middle ground for now (as a temporary measure only) to prevent lords from escaping too quickly, but not being out of action long enough that their faction gets steamrolled after a major battle. No one is misleading anyone and saying the problem is solved and will never be looked at again.
the devs said this isnt a fix
so they know they are waiting for more lords to be added before having a fixed final system
Yep, exactly! Haha sorry, I was responding to the whole back and forth with the other guy.
drallim33
Sergeant
Gryphon said 26 days average imprisonment in a castle. This is false 99% of the time. It is only true in a rare edge case (depositing a lord in player owned dungeon immediately after capture). So yeah you can point out that he is technically correct in a rare edge case if you want.
I've been playing with a mod configured to reduce escape chance to 8% during peace time and 2% while at war. It's been fine. With ten imprisoned lords that's average one escape every 5 days. And then they escape much faster during peace time. They can still get ransomed before they escape. This whole paranoia about snowballing is a red herring. Escape chance affects lords from all factions equally, not just one.
Saying the numbers are just temporary is not useful, that's the same as saying "it's early access guys!".
They escape way too fast and I've seen no acknowledgement of the issue. On the contrary, it keeps being implied that the fast escape rate is necessary. Well I don't agree that it is necessary, I think this assertion needs to be challenged, especially after changes that have made garrisons bigger, which should make sieges more costly.
Why's this false? As durbal will tell you, the average days to escape is a geometric distribution and is just the simple equation of 1/p where p is the probability to escape each day. Chance of escape per day in a player owned dungeon is 3.75%. So, (1/0.0375) = 26.67, which is where you get the stated average. It's not an edge case, simply because we are only talking about the chances the moment a lord is deposited in a dungeon. I think you're misconstruing what people are saying about this.
Put another way, say the chance of a lord to escape on the way to a dungeon was 1/2 per day (a coin flip) and then the chance for him to escape the dungeon was 1/6 per day (a die roll). If it takes me five days to get to the dungeon and I get lucky and successfully flip a coin on tails 5 times in a row to represent me making it, it's still a dice roll per day to keep him, 1/6. We aren't talking about the collective chance of the lord escape during any leg of the journey, just the average time he will stay in the dungeon if successfully placed there. I can't say, well yeah but 99% of the time you roll a 6, because the odds are equal for all numbers to be rolled haha, it's literally 16.67% not 99%. That's probability.
If you feel you need to play with mods to enjoy the game, more power to you.
I've actually quoted mexxico's statement where he acknowledges this issue like 6 times in this very thread haha. I think you're just messing with me at this point.
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First, stop using my slightly off recollection of what devs said and please use the information that Bannerman provided with direct quotes from developers (wasting a lot of time over this idk why). I've edited my original post you referenced to reflect correct figures.
Have you been playing from the start? The snowball effect is real and only something they've recently improved on. You can see in the quote of Mexxico that Bannerman provided, he says that lowering the escape rate to 2.5% increased snowballing once a faction lost a major battle. I think its safe to assume he can say that because he tested it. I implore you to read Mexxico's comment on it again.
Lol it honestly seems that way.
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Haha I know, I think I fell for the bait.
Warlord-616x
Recruit
ya but you can only have so many clans. found that out the hard way.
