Here is what I'm guessing will happen :
Single player will die off (like all single player games do) after 2-3 months, their income will practically halt and they will have to sell at 75% off by next christmas. They will start realising that they do need the sale from the MP community, they will release a half assed "MP Centered" DLC for 20$ bucks that is basically a glorified fan mod and only then will we have community servers and modding support online.
well warband sp did not die off after 2-3 months, so not all singleplayer games are like that, in fact i know more people that are still playing the sp than the mp of warband even today (some with mods, some playing native).
That's exactly the argument. They sold the game without the selling point. I have no doubt it will get better and the 25 players still playing will enjoy it a lot when we get mod support for multiplayer. But it will be too late to have an actual revigorated community. The average player is never going back to a game he had a terrible time with online, and right now, they all have a terrible time.
mods are already being developed, bigger mods take a lot of time, and most will not start production untill EA is over. the first mount and blade was the same, or do you think it had huge mods in the first 4 months after it got released? it was not to late to get the community back together and it is not for bannerlord. there are two kinds of players, those that enjoy singleplayer and those that enjoy multiplayer.
you are making a lot of assumptions about what the average player wants.
as someone who enjoyed the mass effect series and played all those games multiple times i can tell you now, the mp part is not needed to enjoy a game. in mass effect 3 they had mp, it sucked, i (and many others) still played the singleplayer multiple times, and that was a game with low replayability, warband had a huge replayability factor, i can already see the potential for bannerlord to have the same. just because you cannot enjoy games without a good mp it does not mean that no one can.
last but not least, i am having a great time with the captain mode. so again assuming that everyone has a bad time on mp is a huge mistake.