corona? :(

Currently viewing this thread:

Fietta

buıʇʇǝs uoıʇɔǝɹıp ʞɔɐʇʇɐ
Section Moderator
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Best answers
0
This is objectively wrong.
Mumps is quite rare due to being part of the standard vaccination programs.
In most cases the symptoms are mild and generally don't affect respiration, like influenza.
That's why mortality from mumps is encephalitis/meningitis - not pneumonia.
It's contagious through spit and there has to be quite close contact to the sick person in order to be infected.
The incubation period is also shorter, and it lasts about a week.
To a layman this can seem similar to the coronavirus (I don't know), but there are very important differences.

(... fatality rate of mumps encephalitis is low and overall mortality is 1/10 000 ...)
The MMR vaccine isn't lifelong immunity (you're suppose get a top-up after 10 - 15 years). The average incubation period for mumps is 16 to 18 days (with a range of 10 to 25 days). Mumps is spread in the same way as colds and flu: through infected droplets of saliva that can be inhaled or picked up from surfaces and transferred into the mouth or nose. Encephalitis is very serious, if left untreated it causes problems and the main cause of death from mumps was Aseptic Meningitis (which could have up to 70% mortality rate in new borns, you've only provided the 1/10000 case which was Encephalitis), just like leaving pneumonia (probably the most common cause of coronavirus deaths) causes problems. There's no real 'mortality rate' for coronavirus as per say, as currently it's an epidemic, everyone's being treated at a hospital (safety precautions, it's new) and people are being treated with the same antibiotics to treat flu (unless it turns into pneumonia), the current 'mortality rate' is only based on who's died from it, which some countries have reported the deaths are from pneumonia, some coronavirus (the results are usually skewed anyways) and they're not taking into account the fact people aren't getting treated as there isn't enough room. It's why mortality rate is on a per country basis. It wouldn't surprise me if coronavirus has the same mortality rate as flu if it were in a controlled environment.

The mortality rate of coronavirus could be 1% in the US but 10% in Iran.
 
Last edited:

Adorno

Bedroom Assassin
Duke
WBNWM&BVC
Best answers
0
Okay. I think we disagree on mortality rate. You can't just imagine a scenario where vaccines don't exist and say mumps is more lethal.
I mentioned the 1/10,000 because that's mainly the cause of death - and you asked for numbers.

Death due to mumps is exceedingly rare, and is mostly caused by mumps encephalitis. In the USA, over the period 1966–71 there were two deaths per 10 000 mumps cases, with 38% of such deaths involving persons aged ≥40 years (13). In the United Kingdom, 93 deaths were registered from mumps over the period 1962–81, with 53 (57%) of those who died being aged ≥45 years (22).
*
The meningitis from mumps is also a more mild form, so you can't just take statistics on meningitis in general ('aseptic' includes bacterial menigitis which has higher mortality).
So with very few cases and meningitis being rare, the death rate is very little. And making comparisons to the new coronavirus in this regard is not valid.

*https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/56075/mumps.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

The incidence of mumps encephalitis is reported to range from 1 in 6000 mumps cases (0.02%) (12) to 1 in 300 mumps cases (0.3%)
Mumps meningitis is a benign condition that appears within a few days of parotid swelling, although some meningitis patients do not have any parotid swelling. Patients recover without complications, but many require hospitalization during the course of the illness.
You mention people being treated (with the same 'antibiotics' (you mean antiviral or something else)) for coronavirus. Do you have a link to that?
I have only heard of some experimental treatment - I think it was Japan (some HIV medicin).
 

Fietta

buıʇʇǝs uoıʇɔǝɹıp ʞɔɐʇʇɐ
Section Moderator
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Best answers
0
Okay. I think we disagree on mortality rate. You can't just imagine a scenario where vaccines don't exist and say mumps is more lethal.
I mentioned the 1/10,000 because that's mainly the cause of death - and you asked for numbers.

*
The meningitis from mumps is also a more mild form, so you can't just take statistics on meningitis in general ('aseptic' includes bacterial menigitis which has higher mortality).
So with very few cases and meningitis being rare, the death rate is very little. And making comparisons to the new coronavirus in this regard is not valid.

*https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/56075/mumps.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y





You mention people being treated (with the same 'antibiotics' (you mean antiviral or something else)) for coronavirus. Do you have a link to that?
I have only heard of some experimental treatment - I think it was Japan (some HIV medicin).
Sorry my bad, treatments are based on the kind of care given for influenza (seasonal flu) known as "supportive care". They essentially treat the symptoms, though also use the antiviral medication oseltamivir used to treat and prevent Influenza A 'n' B.
 

Yabloko

Sergeant Knight at Arms
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Best answers
0
I hope Italians manage to contain the disease. The rapid increase in infections makes me believe there's a sizeable amount of unreported cases.
 

Bromden

Archduke
Best answers
0
The great western civilization, destroyed by a sickness with 1% mortality rate. I hope it happens, I like irony.
 

JabdiMelborn

ciauz^^
Section Moderator
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Best answers
0
...Situation here is worst day by day, government tell everyone stay at home, if you need to travel to another municipality (work, health care, buy some food) you need an autocertified document to show at police check point, people waiting outside pharmacy or big market are allowed to go true only in a small numer and standing in line at 2 meter distance each other, outside groupings are not allowed, you must go outside alone...

...regions like Lombardia, Piemonte e Veneto, who have hight % of infected people ask for more restricted rules because there are still too much people out for work...
...and now WHO declared pandemic is official...

...the end of all this seems to be still far away...
 

Adorno

Bedroom Assassin
Duke
WBNWM&BVC
Best answers
0
Denmark is also ramping up precautions: no large gatherings. Schools, universities and bars are closing.
Not long before the country is 'shut down'. Don't travel here.
More than 500 infected and the number rising by the hour. So far no deaths, but some have been admitted to hospitals.
It seems to just be the start and hospital are already under pressure to test thousands of people.
 

Tenebcaligors

Recruit
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Best answers
0
I think what people dont understand is even if it doesnt kill you it will most likely wreck you and you will be in bed for 2 weeks and it also has enormous impact on global trade and economy which is more important than human lives in long run. AKA bronz age
 

Yabloko

Sergeant Knight at Arms
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Best answers
0
I think what people dont understand is even if it doesnt kill you it will most likely wreck you and you will be in bed for 2 weeks and it also has enormous impact on global trade and economy which is more important than human lives in long run. AKA bronz age
Covid's death toll so far is thankfully pretty low compared to other pandemics and I don't think it will significantly increase in order of magnitude when all is said and done. The real damage as you said is in the economy, if the outbreak is large enough it can cripple the productivity of many countries. What absolutely astonishes me is how laid back some governments have been with protocols... We will now have to commit many more resources to contain the disease than if we had been cautious from day 0.
 

JabdiMelborn

ciauz^^
Section Moderator
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Best answers
0
Covid's death toll so far is thankfully pretty low compared to other pandemics and I don't think it will significantly increase in order of magnitude when all is said and done....
...Governor of the Veneto region "Luca Zaia" said:...
"Our mathematical models tell us that if it continues like this in five days we will reach the peak in intensive care, and if we continue not to respect the rules by April 15th we will have 2 million Venetians infected."

...2 million are bit less than 50% of Veneto resident...

Source: http://www.ansa.it/veneto/notizie/2...ati_3af97957-c39c-4c8d-bd1c-fe8537e5a6bb.html
 
Last edited:

Yabloko

Sergeant Knight at Arms
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Best answers
0
...Governor of the Veneto region "Luca Zaia" said:...
"Our mathematical models tell us that if it continues like this in five days we will reach the peak in intensive care, and if we continue not to respect the rules by April 15th we will have 2 million Venetians infected."

...2 million are bit less than 50% of Veneto resident...

Source: http://www.ansa.it/veneto/notizie/2...ati_3af97957-c39c-4c8d-bd1c-fe8537e5a6bb.html
2 million must be the absolute worst case scenario. That would mean a more than x100 increase of Italy's infected, over a single region, in a bit over a month. As long as the healthcare system doesn't oversaturate (which should be a fairly high priority) and people who need treatment can get it, the mortality rate should remain low.