Climate change

[Is Milse Póg]

In light of the planned withdrawal of the US from the Paris Accords, I'd thought that It would be fun to open a topic about this.
Anyway, I thin that the current situation is unacceptable, as the scientists predict that if there isn't a serious global effort to migitate anthropomorphic climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, all kinds of bad **** will befall mankind, starting from desertification of semi arid zones, ocean acidification, accelerate species extinction, sea level rise, food shortages, famines, ect. So something must be done, If we want to avoid those effects.
But, knowing human nature, I predict that nothing will be done until the last minute, when it's too late, which will mean that we will have to face the dire consequences. Again, our current way of life is unsustainable, as the resource are scarce and the planet has a limited carrying capacity for humans (Which we may have already passed), which means that a collapse or a change seems imminent in the coming decades.

Discuss...

 

[Dystopian]

Kill off 80% of the population!

 

[Almalexia]

Neo-Malthusian thought is discredited, dont worry your little head. We produce more than enough food for the entire world, the only problem is in transportation and distribution.

Anyways, while the US has pulled out (for now), China has not, and they've made significant strides in developing their renewable energy network, and already have about a fifth of their total energy production from renewables, and that percentage is growing rapidly. In fact, with how things have been going they may meet their 2030 goals a decade early. So, while yes, the US is being a ****head, and yes, China has a ways to go, there is ample reason for hope in human change. Will it be enough? Perhaps not. But keep in mind that barring disease or genocide, human cultures or civilizations dont "disappear" due to climate change or environmental factors: we are much too adaptable for that. The Mayans simply moved their centers of population, they did not disappear as was commonly thought, and even the Easter Islanders simply changed their way of life, their population decline in later years due more to disease and blackbirding slave raiders than anything.

Even with the worst nature can throw at us, barring a mass extinction event on par with the end Cretaceous Period event, adaption is by far our most valuable asset as a species. We'll get by.

 

[Kharille]

Maybe there will be another green revolution, or industrial revolution that can keep human carbon emissions minimized.  I figure if bannerlord comes out we'll all be addicted and will encase ourselves in our nerd rooms and never come out.  That alone could minimize fossil fuel incineration by a massive fraction.  I can imagine another I am Legend future where the streets are deserted because we're all too busy bannerlording.  Then plants and animals will turn these cities into empty wildernesses.  And everywhere it'll be almost harvesting season...

 

[Untitled.]

Do we actually know the Mayan 'collapse' was due to environmental effects? Does anyone have a good paper on this, I'm very interested.

 

[Kharille]

Really interesting articles I've read that there is some evidence of some cyclical extinction every 100,000 years which could indicate some orbit of a mass of asteroids.  And there's also that Niburu theory about Mayans being doomed because somehow they can only count to 5600.  Which is pretty impressive as it is if you ask me.  Maybe we resolve the carbon crisis and then another series of volcanic eruptions destroy all life on earth.  Maybe because Niburu materializes and deforms earths interior.

What is it with Hawking and '100 years'?  I saw another stupid facebook post.  If the earth is unsustainable we can always use the available 'food supplies' that we've accumulated... 

 

[Temuzu]

Do we actually know the Mayan 'collapse' was due to environmental effects? Does anyone have a good paper on this, I'm very interested.

Pretty sure the best we have are educated guesses, nobody knows for sure what happened to them.

 

[Is Milse Póg]

Neo-Malthusian thought is discredited, dont worry your little head. We produce more than enough food for the entire world, the only problem is in transportation and distribution.

Anyways, while the US has pulled out (for now), China has not, and they've made significant strides in developing their renewable energy network, and already have about a fifth of their total energy production from renewables, and that percentage is growing rapidly. In fact, with how things have been going they may meet their 2030 goals a decade early. So, while yes, the US is being a ****, and yes, China has a ways to go, there is ample reason for hope in human change. Will it be enough? Perhaps not. But keep in mind that barring disease or genocide, human cultures or civilizations dont "disappear" due to climate change or environmental factors: we are much too adaptable for that. The Mayans simply moved their centers of population, they did not disappear as was commonly thought, and even the Easter Islanders simply changed their way of life, their population decline in later years due more to disease and blackbirding slave raiders than anything.

Even with the worst nature can throw at us, barring a mass extinction event on par with the end Cretaceous Period event, adaption is by far our most valuable asset as a species. We'll get by.

Food production itself is not what worries me, but the collapse of ecological and climatological systems that support reliable and large food production in many regions, and yes, supplying food and logistics can be an issue.

Speaking of Paris, the problem is that this is a bad faith move that sows distrust and discord, the superpowers should lead by example,  not deny the existence of a problem.
Also, I want say that I haven't meant extinction when I wrote collapse, I'm talking about reduction in social complexity and quality of life.

 

[Vieira151]

Even with the worst nature can throw at us, barring a mass extinction event on par with the end Cretaceous Period event, adaption is by far our most valuable asset as a species. We'll get by.

Well, that extinction event isn't the worst nature can throw at us. 

It should be noted that, as far as I'm aware, only smaller animal species survived the K-Pg extinction event - with the exception of turtles and crocodiles, nothing weighing more than 25kg survived. And that event paled in comparison to the P-Tr event. Let's hope something like that doesn't happen.

 

[Temuzu]

nothing weighing more than 25kg survived

That feel when even the universe is creating unrealistic weight expectations.

 

[Almalexia]

Well, that extinction event isn't the worst nature can throw at us. 

It should be noted that, as far as I'm aware, only smaller animal species survived the K-Pg extinction event - with the exception of turtles and crocodiles, nothing weighing more than 25kg survived. And that event paled in comparison to the P-Tr event. Let's hope something like that doesn't happen.

It's climate change, coming prematurely, yes, but amidst a pattern of relatively rapid climactic cooling and warming cycles of the current geologic period. It is not a meteor or the eruption of the Siberian Traps, those being Cosmic or geological events which we, fortunately, have little to no control over. 

Do we actually know the Mayan 'collapse' was due to environmental effects? Does anyone have a good paper on this, I'm very interested.

Pretty sure the best we have are educated guesses, nobody knows for sure what happened to them.

It's the leading theory but most archaeologists propose it is one of a number of various, often inter-related, factors that prompted the move from the Mayan highlands to the Coast. Plus of course the Mayans are still around today, so, that's somethin.

Food production itself is not what worries me, but the collapse of ecological and climatological systems that support reliable and large food production in many regions, and yes, supplying food and logistics can be an issue.

...

Also, I want say that I haven't meant extinction when I wrote collapse, I'm talking about reduction in social complexity and quality of life.

In some regions, yes. In others, it could conceivably improve productivity. The centers of population will shift, there will, yes, be disruptions and conflict, but it is neither the end of the world nor the end of modern civilization.

Speaking of Paris, the problem is that this is a bad faith move that sows distrust and discord, the superpowers should lead by example,  not deny the existence of a problem.

I mean, not really. Like I said, China, the other rising superpower, is on board unconditionally whether the US sticks with it or not, so you may, perhaps ironically, see it taking a greater leadership position in these issues in the coming years. And the US joins only two other countries in not committing to it, out of almost 200, so the discordant effect is perhaps rather muted.

 

[Is Milse Póg]

Well, that extinction event isn't the worst nature can throw at us. 

It should be noted that, as far as I'm aware, only smaller animal species survived the K-Pg extinction event - with the exception of turtles and crocodiles, nothing weighing more than 25kg survived. And that event paled in comparison to the P-Tr event. Let's hope something like that doesn't happen.

It's climate change, coming prematurely, yes, but amidst a pattern of relatively rapid climactic cooling and warming cycles of the current geologic period. It is not a meteor or the eruption of the Siberian Traps, those being Cosmic or geological events which we, fortunately, have little to no control over. 

Do we actually know the Mayan 'collapse' was due to environmental effects? Does anyone have a good paper on this, I'm very interested.

Pretty sure the best we have are educated guesses, nobody knows for sure what happened to them.

It's the leading theory but most archaeologists propose it is one of a number of various, often inter-related, factors that prompted the move from the Mayan highlands to the Coast. Plus of course the Mayans are still around today, so, that's somethin.

Food production itself is not what worries me, but the collapse of ecological and climatological systems that support reliable and large food production in many regions, and yes, supplying food and logistics can be an issue.

...

Also, I want say that I haven't meant extinction when I wrote collapse, I'm talking about reduction in social complexity and quality of life.

In some regions, yes. In others, it could conceivably improve productivity. The centers of population will shift, there will, yes, be disruptions and conflict, but it is neither the end of the world nor the end of modern civilization.

Speaking of Paris, the problem is that this is a bad faith move that sows distrust and discord, the superpowers should lead by example,  not deny the existence of a problem.

I mean, not really. Like I said, China, the other rising superpower, is on board unconditionally whether the US sticks with it or not, so you may, perhaps ironically, see it taking a greater leadership position in these issues in the coming years. And the US joins only two other countries in not committing to it, out of almost 200, so the discordant effect is perhaps rather muted.

Currently the extinction rate is slightly higher then the background, so we might see a minor event in the future (Smaller than the big five), which some scientists predict will occur (The earth seen many such events).
Even if the damages are not as large as a mass extinction, the current anthropogenic loss of species (Amphibian crisis, Bats, Megafauna extinction, et al) should, in my opinion, make people stop and think on how our actions as a species affect other life forms and the planet as a whole.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

Again, I never talked about the end of the world, nor human extinction. I was and am talking about large societal collapse (Think end of the western roman empire, It's not that inconceivable), exactly this kind of population shifts, and conflict causes societies to collapse, most likely reverting to simpler social organizations, some loss and reduced utilization of technology, decreased population, lowered standards of living, ect. This is what happened in western europe after and during the collapse of the western roman empire and led to the dark ages. Such process happen due to a large number of reasons including climate/ecological deterioration, especially since those cause famine and aggravate internal and external conflict.
Would such a collapse, if it happens,  affect all parts of the earth uniformly? No.
Would it cause worldwide worsening of standards of living, food security, and regional conflicts? Yes.

As for the climate changes increasing productivity,  the effects of global warming are generally negative, though some minor positive effects here is a quote from Wikipedia about that:
"In some locations and industries global warming may increase productivity, though the IPCC cautions that "Estimates agree on the size of the impact (small relative to economic growth), and 17 of the 20 impact estimates shown in Figure 10-1 are negative. Losses accelerate with greater warming, and estimates diverge.""
Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming
And for heath effects: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change,_industry_and_society

As for Paris, I agree that this won't spell the end to migitation efforts, but it is a setback, as the US is still a major superpower, even though, it seems that on this front the current administration acts like a pariah, I hope that the next administration will both honor it's predecessor's treaties and get back on board with the global efforts to migitate anthropogenical ecological damages and global warming.

 

[Almalexia]

I don't think we disagree meaningfully on any point. Just stressing that the changes are not uniform and affect particular regions differently, and that even with the Roman Empire, it didn't "collapse" in totality, it shifted its centers of population and political control to the Eastern Empire. The "Dark Ages" being relatively localized to Western Europe.

 

[Is Milse Póg]

I don't think we disagree meaningfully on any point. Just stressing that the changes are not uniform and affect particular regions differently, and that even with the Roman Empire, it didn't "collapse" in totality, it shifted its centers of population and political control to the Eastern Empire. The "Dark Ages" being relatively localized to Western Europe.

I was careful to include "western" everytime, though the ERE and north Africa were affected to some degree. 

 

[Wellenbrecher]

A part of the conservative party in Germany now demand that Merkel goes back on it as well because we probably won't be able to stop or slow climate change anyway and we can probably profit from it in some way

 

[Is Milse Póg]

A part of the conservative party in Germany now demand that Merkel goes back on it as well because we probably won't be able to stop or slow climate change anyway and we can probably profit from it in some way

I can think of the election slogans:
"If you can't fix it why not make it worse"
"Who cares about our children's future, at least we can make some moniez"

 

[Antoine de Saint-Exupéry]

隐藏

 

[omzdog]

The trouble we have is not convincing anyone who has a serious opinion on the matter to change their mind.
It is that we have people playing an institutional role who most often agree with the scientists, but cannot escape the restrictions of professionalism.
Some reports include the fact that Rex Tillerson didn't support Trump's rejection of the agreement nor apparently do most of the big oil companies.

 

[Catholic]

A lot of the reason that big oil is against leaving the Paris Agreement is that it was a uniform regulation in the United States, which companies actually love compared to the alternative - state by state regulations. Now, instead of following the Paris Agreement and the Clean Power Plan (whenever it is deconstructed), each company will have to make sure that it follows the regulations of each and every state that comes up with its own unique regulations to try to reduce emissions and pollution.

 

[Antoine de Saint-Exupéry]

Relevant:
https://www.curbed.com/2017/6/1/15726376/paris-accord-climate-change-mayors-trump