Bundestag elections 2013
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Looks like status quo so far. The conservatives (CDU) are overwhelmingly winning.
Duh
Duke
It may actually turn out to be a historic election. For the first time since their conception the FDP may not be in the national parliament. It is amusing that the CDU (conservatives) absorbed up most (~8%) of the market liberals, which were their coalition partners for the current government. Merkel is just not a great choice to team up with.
As for an explanation to the success of the CDU, i would guesstimate several factors.
- Poor leadership figures for the other parties
- Very broad agenda of the CDU/CSU (reaching from right to left)
- Merkel has coined the term "presidential hesitation" in german political science; she does not lead, she waits for a majority opinion to form and then follows that, not always, but most often
- Merkel has been able to keep her own party in check, potential competition miracourasly experiences scandals that end their political careers
- Leadership conflicts within other parties
- The german left is also splintered into at least 3 parties - SPD, Greens, The Left
- The creation of the AFD (Alternative for Germany) could be seen as a problem for the CDU as they are conservative competition, but what it really signifies (particularly considering the poll results) is that there has been an overall shift towards the right. In the long run the CDU will probably profit from the AFD. Once they have been sufficiently stigmatized as nationalistic extremists, their progress will stagnate, voters will become frustrated and turn to the next best option, which is the CDU (or they wont vote, which is also no harm).
Overall Merkel wins, because the opposition is weak. She does not have to show profile and take risks, because there is no serious competition. On the other hand anyone hoping to compete with her has to gamble to catch up with her.
As for an explanation to the success of the CDU, i would guesstimate several factors.
- Poor leadership figures for the other parties
- Very broad agenda of the CDU/CSU (reaching from right to left)
- Merkel has coined the term "presidential hesitation" in german political science; she does not lead, she waits for a majority opinion to form and then follows that, not always, but most often
- Merkel has been able to keep her own party in check, potential competition miracourasly experiences scandals that end their political careers
- Leadership conflicts within other parties
- The german left is also splintered into at least 3 parties - SPD, Greens, The Left
- The creation of the AFD (Alternative for Germany) could be seen as a problem for the CDU as they are conservative competition, but what it really signifies (particularly considering the poll results) is that there has been an overall shift towards the right. In the long run the CDU will probably profit from the AFD. Once they have been sufficiently stigmatized as nationalistic extremists, their progress will stagnate, voters will become frustrated and turn to the next best option, which is the CDU (or they wont vote, which is also no harm).
Overall Merkel wins, because the opposition is weak. She does not have to show profile and take risks, because there is no serious competition. On the other hand anyone hoping to compete with her has to gamble to catch up with her.
Seriously? What's wrong with that many Germans.
Merkel didn't **** up and she's a known quantity. And the FDP is in shambles.
Go figure.
Granted, numbers like that were unexpected - could be the first absolute majority for them since the fifties - but I don't think anybody apart from Steinbrück actually expected them to not win.
Go figure.
Granted, numbers like that were unexpected - could be the first absolute majority for them since the fifties - but I don't think anybody apart from Steinbrück actually expected them to not win.
Duh
Duke
It actually isnt all that great of a question. Hard to tell what exactly he refers to.Darwin said:
If it is about the AFD - In times of perceived or actual economic hardship or risk, people always want to stick to what they know, they turn more conservative and in todays world that includes turning towards the nation state rather than some new entity that is the EU. The movement is hardly limited to germany either.
PoisonCourtesan
Count
The right is again rising in Europe it seems. Pretty strange for an economically powerful country.
I don't know if anyone else has observed that there's been a conservative wave lately. And it's not just Europe, it's the eastern bloc and Russia too.
I don't know if anyone else has observed that there's been a conservative wave lately. And it's not just Europe, it's the eastern bloc and Russia too.
Hmph and FDP? What's that about? Why exactly did they do to lose 10 pc (presumably to CDU)?
It doesn't really seem to me like Merkel has been reaching out to their typical voters...
Edit:
There's a vast gulf between CDU-style right and Russian right. So vast it doesn't make any sense to use the same word for them. Not to mention it was Schröder who was total BFFs with Putin and now works for him, for crying out loud.
It doesn't really seem to me like Merkel has been reaching out to their typical voters...
Edit:
PoisonCourtesan said:
There's a vast gulf between CDU-style right and Russian right. So vast it doesn't make any sense to use the same word for them. Not to mention it was Schröder who was total BFFs with Putin and now works for him, for crying out loud.
Poor leadership. The infighting.
And the CDU is incredibly talented at making all problems look like being caused by their coalition partner. See what happened during the last coalition with the SPD.
It's going great over here, but what Duh said still stands thanks to Southern Europe and thanks to how much the media loves to create drama where there is none.
Also Merkel personally has no profile, which makes her so successful. Putting her in the right corner is ridiculous.
Which is to say, folks voted for her, not the CDU.
And the CDU is incredibly talented at making all problems look like being caused by their coalition partner. See what happened during the last coalition with the SPD.
Yeah, and tomorrow the fascists will be back, right?PoisonCourtesan said:
It's going great over here, but what Duh said still stands thanks to Southern Europe and thanks to how much the media loves to create drama where there is none.
Also Merkel personally has no profile, which makes her so successful. Putting her in the right corner is ridiculous.
Which is to say, folks voted for her, not the CDU.
Also, were you German folks satisfied with Merkel's run until now?
She didn't **** up. Personally.
Economy's growing.
Rate of debt is reducing since 2008.
Rate of unemployment is at its lowest since the crash in 2001.
While paying off the EU crisis countries, she's not completely giving in to their whining.
I don't like her, but I can see why people do.
So yeah, I guess she could've done way worse by actually doing something.
Economy's growing.
Rate of debt is reducing since 2008.
Rate of unemployment is at its lowest since the crash in 2001.
While paying off the EU crisis countries, she's not completely giving in to their whining.
I don't like her, but I can see why people do.
So yeah, I guess she could've done way worse by actually doing something.
Duh
Duke
To be fair the FDP did make some pretty stupid moves itself. They were in support of bailing out the banks, but then loudly proclaimed that the free market has to reign, when the "Schlecker" chain needed a state bail out. They provided Hotel chains with tax cuts after having received large donations from them. And as bad as it is - i do believe having a gay and an asian (looks) party head was detrimental to their support. It shouldnt have been and im sure nobody would say it affected their decision, but old habits die hard.Wellenbrecher said:
Turnout of 73%.
What.
The.
****.
Also preliminary results:
http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2013-09-22-BT-DE/index.shtml
CDU needs six more mandates to be able to rule by themselves without doing so as a minority government.
What.
The.
****.
Also preliminary results:
http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2013-09-22-BT-DE/index.shtml
CDU needs six more mandates to be able to rule by themselves without doing so as a minority government.
They got 37%, you dimwit.
And the turnout is how many of folks who are eligible to vote actually went out to do so.
And the turnout is how many of folks who are eligible to vote actually went out to do so.
Thanks for the lesson.Similar threads
