I can back Blood Gryphon here.The game is scripted
The game is far from scripted and this comes after more than a full year of playing and almost 4K hours played on steam in the last 16 months.
There are some factions who are more likely to snowball but i have played enough campaigns to see any of them do well.
the current one i am playing ,and you can also view it on Twitch if you don't belive it, has the Western Empire, Southern Empire and Aserai all doing very well after 30 years. the Southern and my own kingdom together own around 80 Fiefs which is roughly 3/4 of the map. with the Western and Aserai owning a good chunk of what is left and Battania and Vlandia still owning little land.
There was a time pre 1.6. where any campaign felt the same with the Khuzait being the main power after 10-15 years and Vlandia or Battania increasing their reach too.
At that time it did feel like you against the Khuzait but that time is long gone.
Game right now is way too balanced if anything, but hardly unbalanced.
The only faction i kinda never sow doing too well is Sturgia. it seems like their Geographical location combined with their not so good economy is what makes them weaker than the rest.
Another faction who hardly seem to rise up from my experience is the Northern Empire