Best enterprise per city in warband

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nesador

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(If you just want the answer I found, jump to "Findings")

Hello everyone, I'm new here in the forums but definitely not new to M&B games (hundreds of hours of game-play).
I got interested in answering the question of which industries are consistently the most profitable and stable for native and native derived mods because in one of my playthroughs I kept experiencing the volatility of the Calradic commerce and also the guesswork that goes into strategically placing businesses that wont flood the market and give you diminishing returns.

So I looked around different forums for the answer but I realized quickly that there is no consensus on which industry is best in every town with the exception of Curaw (ironworks) and Rivacheg (velvet weavers) and I was somewhat surprised that the answer had not been found for such an old game. I decided to try an answer it on my own but I quickly realized that this question was way harder than I imagined (Duh!), but I think I found a good approximation:

Method:
For the model I built I took into account both data and theory and this is what I came up with
I read as many guides on the Calradic economy as I could find and try to test their claims. I found that as many suspected Calradia has a pseudo-supply&demand economy but the rate of use of materials is not consistent with the demand side of the theory since, for example, velvet is not used faster the cheaper it gets, it only piles up more depressing prices further; and businesses that produce a good that does not have local raw materials will keep producing the good as soon as the raw material shows up due to trade. so the assumptions I made from my research findings are:
1) abundance affects prices but not use,
2) all businesses in calradia (except yours) are essentially subsidized since none will go bankrupt, so good luck kid.

After that, I decided to take a survey of ALL holdings their centers of trade and their production I also found out that from save file to save file the production volume of raw materials is not always the same but rather similar with some variability. The assumptions I made from my survey findings are:
3) the production of villages is somewhat variable depending on their level of prosperity, the least prosperous the less they produce valuable raw materials.
4) some production enterprises that seem profitable when inquiring with the guide master, i.e velvet weavers in Sargoth, are high risk high reward since they are entirely dependent on trade with no raw materials locally produced.
5) the safest and more stable enterprise is not always the one that pays the most in times of peace but will have the least variable loss in times of war (which is almost always except late game).

Findings:
So, I fed all the data from towns, villages, enterprises and commodities into a python script and used my assumptions to create a mathematical equation that will give you the most stable enterprise with a mid-to-high competitive profit margin (A moderate-risk portfolio if you like). The equation gives you are coefficient of profit-stability of an enterprise in a particular city based on the data I collected the equation is as follows:

Ps = Pm [ R_in - (A^(-1) R_used C) ]

where: Ps = profit-stability coefficient, Pm = profit margin, R_in = raw resource units produce by the locals, A^(-1) = is the abundance of the finished product but we take the inverse of it, R_used = the amount of raw materials used by the competition, C = number of compatitors, usually 0 or 1 i.e the town already produces that commodity. the coefficient can have 1 of three values:
  • Ps = 0, the town does not produce the good and the raw material is not produced locally, therefore the business can be profitable but it is entirely dependent on trade
  • Ps > 0, the intake of raw material is higher than the industries that use it, or there is no industry that uses that raw material. very stable and/or profitable
  • Ps < 0, the raw material is not produced locally and there is a local industry that produces enough of it to depress profit.
take the well know money pit of velvet weavers in Rivacheg due to the production of raw silk locally, my model predicts the following:
  • bakery: -6.975554
  • brewery: -0.215441
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.956000
  • wool weavery: -0.053760
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
My interpretation of this finding is that the velvet weavry is the most profitable-stable enterprise but it does not have a high positive number because dyes are not produced locally and there is a risk of lower profits due to low commerce.

The profitable ironworks of Curaw the scores are:
  • bakery: -5.111554
  • brewery: 1.118559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: 0.000000
  • ironworks: 0.219608
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.426240
  • linen weavery: 0.000000.
the three best scores are brewery, ironworks, and wool weavery. Wool and ale have a higher coefficient because their raw products are more abundant locally and brewery is also the most profitable per unit, but ironworks has a higher rate of return so that is why most people end up with higher weekly revenue with ironworks.

for my last example I want to show Jelkala because it is the best example of saturation of the market
  • bakery: -3.946554
  • brewery: 0.451559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: 0.000000
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: -0.477761
  • wool weavery: 0.720000
  • linen weavery: 0.000000.
if you were to go only by local raw production you would find that velvet should be the most profitable since Jelkala has the highest amount of raw silk and dyes, but because they already produce velvet, the market already has a depressed profit margin due to the unusual amount of velvet in its goods market. (an example of assumptions 1 and 2).

Here are all of the results of my model for every city:
Jelkala:
  • bakery: -3.946554
  • brewery: 0.451559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: 0.000000
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: -0.477761
  • wool weavery: 0.720000
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Veluca:
  • bakery: -5.577554
  • brewery: 3.786559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.242424
  • oil press: -0.488488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: -2.389761
  • wool weavery: 0.426240
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Yalen:
  • bakery: -6.276554
  • brewery: 1.785559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -0.121576
  • oil press: -0.976488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.960000
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Tihr:
  • bakery: -4.878554
  • brewery: 1.785559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 1.092000
  • oil press: 0.000000
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.426240
  • linen weavery: -0.355840
Sargoth:
  • bakery: -3.946554
  • brewery: 0.451559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -0.121576
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.426240
  • linen weavery: 0.444160
Wercheg:
  • bakery: -5.344554
  • brewery: 0.451559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.546000
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: -0.293760
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Reyvadin:
  • bakery: -5.810554
  • brewery: -0.882441
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.063392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: -0.533760
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Curaw:
  • bakery: -5.111554
  • brewery: 1.118559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: 0.000000
  • ironworks: 0.219608
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.426240
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Khudan:
  • bakery: -5.344554
  • brewery: 0.451559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: -1.952488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.186240
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Rivacheg:
  • bakery: -6.975554
  • brewery: -0.215441
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.956000
  • wool weavery: -0.053760
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Praven:
  • bakery: -5.111554
  • brewery: 1.118559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.666240
  • linen weavery: 0.960000
Suno:
  • bakery: -5.577554
  • brewery: -0.215441
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: -1.708488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: -2.389761
  • wool weavery: -0.053760
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Uxkhal:
  • bakery: -3.480554
  • brewery: 1.785559
  • tannery: -1
  • wine press: -1.031576
  • oil press: -1.220488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.186240
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Dhirim:
  • bakery: -7.674554
  • brewery: 5.787559
  • tannery: 1
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: 0.785608
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.666240
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Shariz:
  • bakery: -3.821200
  • brewery: 4.068700
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: -0.976488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: -0.053760
  • linen weavery: 1.120000
Durquba:
  • bakery: -1.724200
  • brewery: 2.067700
  • tannery: -1
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: 0.000000
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: -0.533760
  • linen weavery: -0.355840
Ahmerrad:
  • bakery: -0.093200
  • brewery: 2.734700
  • tannery: -1
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 1.195000
  • wool weavery: -0.533760
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Bariyye:
  • bakery: -2.423200
  • brewery: 0.066700
  • tannery: -1
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.956000
  • wool weavery: -0.533760
  • linen weavery: 0.480000
Halmar:
  • bakery: -4.179554
  • brewery: -0.215441
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: -0.053760
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Narra:
  • bakery: -3.713554
  • brewery: 1.118559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: 0.000000
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.063392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.186240
  • linen weavery: 0.640000
Tulga:
  • bakery: -4.412554
  • brewery: -0.882441
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: -2.440488
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: 0.426240
  • linen weavery: 0.000000
Ichamur:
  • bakery: -3.713554
  • brewery: 1.118559
  • tannery: 0
  • wine press: -1.213576
  • oil press: 0.000000
  • ironworks: -0.629392
  • velvet weavery: 0.000000
  • wool weavery: -0.053760
  • linen weavery: 0.000000.

Limitations and speculation:
  • The biggest limitation is that of one sample size of the entire map. like I said earlier, the data used was taken from one of my saved games, within the first week of game-time. this means that all kingdoms are at their starting borders, almost no effects from commerce or war and the small variation in production from save file to save file.
  • Another limitation is that the interpretation of the coefficient is strictly limited to profit-stability profit and stability in this model are positively related so as a general rule anything with a positive score will be a safe choice and the opposite for negative coefficients
  • A further point of speculation about scores of "0" is that it does not mean these are bad businesses; on the contrary, towns that are more likely to get merchants i.e towns near the center of the map, can have much more profitable enterprises with a score of zero. Obviously you will sacrifice stability for profit but it can pay off.
Sorry for the long post, I hope people find this useful and if you are interested I could upload my code and data to a public repository if you want to modify it. The code is not pretty but then again, I don't expect it to be widely consumed. the abundance constants I got them from the game files and the rate of return I got them from the M&BW wiki. Any advice is appreciated
 
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