Armenian Genocide (?)

[Úlfheðinn]

I also don't understand why we're supposed to assume Germany didn't consider the potential consequences.

Like most nations, I assume the German government thought about it and perhaps decided that end sum, it was more beneficial in the long run to recognize the Armenian Genocide (it's also beyond our scope to speculate why, maybe they honestly thought it would make Turkey more likely to fully admit guilt, maybe they thought it would help the Armenians more, maybe they...etc.).

 

[Calradianın bilgesi]

@Almalexia Correct me if I'm wrong, but as far as I know this apology is mostly a result of internal developments. And my whole points is that such changements should be driven by internal efforts, not by external political pressure. The official recognition of genocide and an apology will not create material changes in Armenians' lives. It's still important, but I think the debate on Armenian genocide is part of the greater issue of Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Convincing the Turkish people can end the discrimination, hate crimes and all the things Armenians suffer today. But these resolutions do not change the public opinion in a desirable way.
@Weaver Understand it the way you want to do, I have repeatedly pointed out that I do not make any claims on the responsibility. I'm just investigating how a problem that concerns be can be solved best. It would be really nice if all people agreed with me about the genocide, and if we could reconcile in one day. Unfortunately, reconcilation involves a process, and some actions accelerates it while some don't.

No, what I'm arguing is that it's ridiculous to tell/expect Germany not to pass resolutions, when anything they say or do might result in Erdoğan drumming up the presses and the Turkish people (I mean ****, last time all it took was some random German singing a song that offended the glorious leader).

I think the problem is that you frame the whole issue as Western nations vs. authoritarian Erdoğan. But this is a question about how the Turkish public opinion on Armenian genocide is shaped, and do you really think that the satirical song influences people's opinions on Armenian issue? Do you really think a German historian's book on Armenian genocide create the same effects?

 

[Úlfheðinn]

I think the problem is that you frame the whole issue as Western nations vs. authoritarian Erdoğan. But this is a question about how the Turkish public opinion on Armenian genocide is shaped, and do you really think that the satirical song influences people's opinions on Armenian issue? Do you really think a German historian's book on Armenian genocide create the same effects?

Do you really think Turkey should be dictating what the entire world can and should write?

Should historians be afraid to publish material because it might offend a country?

Should researchers choose to lie or not publish their research because it might lead people to feel hurt by their data?

 

[Calradianın bilgesi]

No. I thought in democracies people have different opinions on what the good is and how to achieve the good, and often express their opinions on some specific policies.

Should historians be afraid to publish material because it might offend a country?

I think this is also a debatable thing, but in this significant case, historians do not create the effects that I've mentioned before. So as they do not have an observable harm, there isn't even a need to make a trade-off between intellectual courage-honesty and potential harms.

 

[Úlfheðinn]

Yeah, so then respect Germany's democratic decision to express an opinion based on what they thought was the best course of action.

I don't think the West needs to protect the Turkish people or treat them like children who can't or won't make up their own opinion.

I think this is also a debatable thing, but in this significant case, historians do not create the effects that I've mentioned before. So as they do not have an observable harm, there isn't even a need to make a trade-off between intellectual courage-honesty and potential harms.

I think that's an empirical question and not something any of us can or have addressed, e.g., what is observable harm exactly, how do we differentiate or measure the exact effect of a published paper, book, or say Germany's resolution?

I'd argue that what has been published on the Armenian Genocide is in fact quite important to the resulting actions/beliefs of a great number of people.

 

[kurczak]

I'm starting to feel kind of bad for Calradianın. It feels like we're ganging up on him and not in the fun way.

 

[Calradianın bilgesi]

Yeah, so then respect Germany's democratic decision to express an opinion based on what they thought was the best course of action.

I don't think the West needs to protect the Turkish people or treat them like children who can't or won't make up their own opinion.

Yeah, I respect it by not blocking it. But I think it shouldn't have done it. I don't know how a debate on the impacts of a certain policy became a debate on the democracy. Claiming that something is harmful isn't dictating anything at all.
Again, I'm open to any argument which can explain how this resolution can improve Armenians' lives, because I care it as a progressive cause. I really do. I just felt that the efforts of people inside this country were spoiled in the last week. That's my concern since the beginning of this discussion.

 

[Úlfheðinn]

I think to me, it's the debate on democracy comes in where we begin to discuss a government basically ignoring the views of it's people and deciding not to follow their wishes because it may offend another nation (in this case the German government recognizing the Armenian Genocide is well inline with the views of the German people).

Again, I'm open to any argument which can explain how this resolution can improve Armenians' lives, because I care it as a progressive cause. I really do. I just felt that the efforts of people inside this country were spoiled in the last week. That's my concern since the beginning of this discussion.

The problem here though is that how to we analyze this beyond just logical or anecdotal evidence?

Like you can say, "It would be better to not pressure Turkey and let the Turks/Armenians sort it out themselves," while others say "The Turks aren't going to recognize the Armenian Genocide unless other countries recognize it and perhaps put pressure on Turkey."

 

[Calradianın bilgesi]

I do not base my arguments on the offense felt by the Turkish people. I fear about the potential harms to the Armenians, and it would be sincere and consistent of a parliament to consider potential harms to Armenians when passing a resolution on the Armenian genocide.

 

[Úlfheðinn]

Ok, but we still have the same problem.

What do you have to support that assertion?

Again, we just run into the same:

"It's less harmful to not do anything." vs. "It's less harmful to do something."

 

[Calradianın bilgesi]

I've previously said that I didn't encounter any study comparing opinion polls before and after resolutions. So I also have space for some doubt and I'm willing to change my mind with plausible arguments. But I'm able to observe regressions(things I've mentioned before) in the actions and declarations of officials and media before and after the resolutions. The Turkish public was brazenly racist during last a few days whereas they're much more embarrassed during commemerations of Armenian genocide or the murder of an Armenian journalist. These things suggest an almost certain regression in the short term and probably(though I'm less sure) in the long term.

 

[Úlfheðinn]

For one, behavior is almost always more interesting than polls or stated opinions (even regarding things like racism).

Secondly, I mean that's the crux of the issue, like sure we can say short term it has lead to anger in Turkey, but has that actually lead to life being worse for Armenians? How will it affect Armenians in the near future? How will it effect Armenians at a later time? How will Germany recognizing the Armenian Genocide affect other nations? How might this in turn affect Turkey in the future?

I mean if we want to go historical, I'd say that Germany was given very little choice in recognizing the Holocaust, but that's worked out fairly well (considering that there isn't a hatred of Jews in Germany, nor a large number of Nazis).

 

[Calradianın bilgesi]

Secondly, I mean that's the crux of the issue, like sure we can say short term it has lead to anger in Turkey, but has that actually lead to life being worse for Armenians? How will it affect Armenians in the near future? How will it effect Armenians at a later time? How will Germany recognizing the Armenian Genocide affect other nations? How might this in turn affect Turkey in the future?

The absence of statistical evidence shouldn't keep us from reasoning about the consequences though. Widespread racist rhetoric, increased credibility for nationalists and unacceptable racist statements from officials without any condemnation from the public. It's plausible to suggest that nationalists benefit and Armenians lose from this environment.

 

[Wellenbrecher]

Wait... by your logic Germany shouldn't have done this, because of racist tendencies and sentiments in Turkey?
That's the same level of silly as that one 'murikan on this forum a good six years ago who argued on and on and on against gay couples being allowed to adopt kids because they'd be bullied in school. Was that rallix?

Like most nations, I assume the German government thought about it and perhaps decided that end sum, it was more beneficial in the long run to recognize the Armenian Genocide (it's also beyond our scope to speculate why, maybe they honestly thought it would make Turkey more likely to fully admit guilt, maybe they thought it would help the Armenians more, maybe they...etc.).

It didn't come from the government. The petition to vote on it was handed in by a coalition of MPs from all parties.
Not disagreeing with you, just clarifying.


@Weaver a few pages ago:
It's special because there are millions of Turks´and millions and millions of people of Turkish descent living in Germany. Moreso than in the other countries. This gives a wonderful flow of information back "home" that can be exploited for outrage and as a rallying point for... "someone".

 

[Evelyn]

That's the same level of silly as that one 'murikan on this forum a good six years ago who argued on and on and on against gay couples being allowed to adopt kids because they'd be bullied in school. Was that rallix?

Wouldn't surprise me. Rallix was the one who was like "Gay people should not be allowed to get married because anal sex is icky and straight couples don't ever have anal sex at all ever"

 

[Calradianın bilgesi]

Wait... by your logic Germany shouldn't have done this, because of racist tendencies and sentiments in Turkey?
That's the same level of silly as that one 'murikan on this forum a good six years ago who argued on and on and on against gay couples being allowed to adopt kids because they'd be bullied in school. Was that rallix?

What differentiates Turkey is not only the racism, but continuing Sèvres Syndrome. The Armenian genocide was used to legitimize occupation of Anatolia before, and Turkish people have deep suspicions about foreign involvement in these subjects. I think this perception maybe hard to grasp, but it plays in important role in the current reaction.
I think that argument is a valid argument against gay parenthood btw.

 

[Wellenbrecher]

Let's maybe not go down the gay rights route as well, you'll not do yourself any favours
In any case, potential uninformed populist BS reactions in another country should not properly play a major role in something like this. I still say you and in fact the Turkish public in general are being played here.
It's a godsend for Erdogan and he'll exploit this to hell and back for a long while to come. Or at least it wouldn't surprise me if he did.

 

[Almalexia]

Honestly I don't think silent time or international condemnation is going to do much on either end in regards to eventually recognizing the Armenian Genocide. Turkey has already isolated itself so far from practically the rest of the damn planet already, and holding on to its claims of innocence in the matter is the only recourse of the government towards legitimacy as it gradually accrues more autocratic power. Its acquiesced to the continued existence ISIS in its gambit to repress the Kurds, despite the immense international pressure and outcry against the unbelievably savage atrocities committed by ISIS.

To be pessimistic, will the German government's actions lead to any immediate constructive discussion on the Armenian Genocide? No, I don't think so. As the situation stands, and in the path the Turkish government is headed, nothing would. What it may do, is help Europe and the rest of NATO reassess the value of its ally in Turkey, which has thus been obstructive in accomplishing its goals, and eventually if need be provide some ideological basis for intervention of some kind should the Turks attempt to start something with the Armenians. Whether this intervention is political, economic, or god help us, military, it would be possible in a way that attempts to assist the Kurds in Syria/Iraq could never achieve.

 

[Moose!]

What it may do, is help Europe and the rest of NATO reassess the value of its ally in Turkey, which has thus been obstructive in accomplishing its goals, and eventually if need be provide some ideological basis for intervention of some kind should the Turks attempt to start something with the Armenians.

You just confirmed all of ancalimon's fears. 

 

[Almalexia]

Tbh despite my better judgement, Ancalimon has tarnished my perception of the Turks himself to the point that I really don't care. Way to defeat your own cause, buddy. 

Seriously tho, if their reaction to being called on their denial of the Armenian genocide is to start another Armenian genocide, they deserve to be invaded. I'm sorry.