Amprela doesn't rebel?

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I've been trying to incite rebellion in Amprela for almost 2 in-game years, in two separate campaigns. Neither one ever causes a rebellion in this settlement.

Amprela-Rebel.png


In my first save, I spent 500k gold buying food from every trader and villager that came close. I got their garrison to 0 as a result, and their loyalty was around 22 for the duration. Several weeks of this resulted in no rebellion - I abandoned the cause when I was spending near 10k gold to buy out traders that knew their profits would be insane inside the settlement and chalked it all up as a waste of time.
This second attempt, I've waited to incite rebellion until after it was already sieged, so the loyalty counter is already low enough to sustain, despite food and using the gang quests to lower the settlement security and loyalty instead (Security @ 25 here)... still, several in-game weeks have already passed and there's no whiff of rebellion in this settlement again.

I've read elsewhere that the chance of rebellion with standard risk is 15% per daily tick... so I would assume that a "High risk" is a higher percentage chance of rebellion per daily tick. Now, either I'm exceptionally unlucky to never, ever get Amprela to land in that 15-*% threshold of rebellion, or this settlement's rebellion is broken.

Has anyone had this specific settlement rebel before?
EDIT: For reference, I abandoned the first campaign as it wasn't rebelling and I thought that save might've been broken.
 
BOOM! Only took another half an hour of keeping the loyalty low to trigger the rebellion... it does work on this settlement, it just seems to be extremely difficult to get it to rebel when its the one you want to rebel lol.
 
I've been trying to incite rebellion in Amprela for almost 2 in-game years, in two separate campaigns. Neither one ever causes a rebellion in this settlement.

Amprela-Rebel.png


In my first save, I spent 500k gold buying food from every trader and villager that came close. I got their garrison to 0 as a result, and their loyalty was around 22 for the duration. Several weeks of this resulted in no rebellion - I abandoned the cause when I was spending near 10k gold to buy out traders that knew their profits would be insane inside the settlement and chalked it all up as a waste of time.
This second attempt, I've waited to incite rebellion until after it was already sieged, so the loyalty counter is already low enough to sustain, despite food and using the gang quests to lower the settlement security and loyalty instead (Security @ 25 here)... still, several in-game weeks have already passed and there's no whiff of rebellion in this settlement again.

I've read elsewhere that the chance of rebellion with standard risk is 15% per daily tick... so I would assume that a "High risk" is a higher percentage chance of rebellion per daily tick. Now, either I'm exceptionally unlucky to never, ever get Amprela to land in that 15-*% threshold of rebellion, or this settlement's rebellion is broken.

Has anyone had this specific settlement rebel before?
EDIT: For reference, I abandoned the first campaign as it wasn't rebelling and I thought that save might've been broken.
If the Garason+Partys inside is half the size of the militia they cant rebel
one time i was trying to get a rebelion to happen
they had 1 loyalty, but for some FUACKING REASON THERE WERE 5 LORDS JUST CHILLIN IN THE TOWN EACH WITH ALMOST 100 TROOPS
They did not leave the town for 3 in game years
so yeah, the AI was smort and stupid at the same time
 
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