Jesus, I am seriously not going to discuss basic math that I assume is something you should have learned around the 8th or 9th grade.Averages are an approximation of the actual game situation as well. The player can never actually come across 0.7 of a notable in gameplay.
What that .7 actually means in real gameplay terms is that you are objectively more likely to come across a castle village with 3 notables - and thus a whole extra row of troop slots- than one with 2, which lacks a whole row of troop slots. There are no notables that offer only 0.7 of a row of troops.
When you say "how likely you are to see one case over the other", that's exactly why you round it to 3, because we are talking about ingame cases here. It shouldn't even need explaining.
TW announced that 25% was the target and the data you have so diligently gathered confirms that it is 25%. If you cannot or will not grasp this then fine, conjure up whatever number you like. I am done with this.