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  1. woodi

    SP - World Map My thoughts on the Faction Snowball effect. Campaigns should go on forever!

    @Adrivan thats very interesting. it's pretty hard to say how player actions influence the behavior of the simulation. Also keep in mind that simulation with 10x -50x can not simulate everything on the map like a 1x simulation would do.
  2. woodi

    SP - World Map My thoughts on the Faction Snowball effect. Campaigns should go on forever!

    At the current state of the game factions are snowballing too quickly which leads to some desperation to the players.
    To help the devs. to get this fixed i ran several simulations of the game (Native 1.0.1 - 1.0.3) without the influence of a player.
    The following graphs show two simulations with a speed modifier of 50 in which the town size of every faction is measured every 21 days.

    simulation1.png
    simulation2.png
    You can see the snowballing effect of faction Khuzait and Vlandia. After 500 it is clear which faction will win, since it already conquered 60% of the map.
    I would also mention the early death of the empire faction, especially the western empire.
    To invistigate the snowballing effect i analysed the day where one faction dies and the day one faction conquered the map (end) of several simulations.

    Does the speed multiplier influence the graph? yes.
    The following images show the normal distribution of my measurements.

    firstday.png
    endday.png
    The speed modifier helps to run more sessions in less time. Lets assume we do some siege calculations per day. Increasing the day speed in real time increases calculations per seconds. Since this ratio is CPU bounded, there are less calculations per day which leads to a shifted measurement (see 100x).10x-50x show similiar results to a simulation with a speed modifier of 3 (like normal players).
    The expected value of the end should be around 600 and the day where one faction dies should be 150-200.
    As a player helping the bigger faction should speedup this process at least by 100 days.
    In my opinion this is way too fast. At day 150 as a player i would join a kingdom as a mercanary and one faction is already dead. While doing my quests to a point where i can create my own kingdom, the superior faction already took 60 % of the map.

    Does patch 1.04 help?
    not really.
    patch 1.04 fixed the problem that some lords go money broke and keep captured by bandits. It seems like it does help a bit and delays the first out day. Faction snowballing is still there.

    firstday-patchanalysis.png
    enday-patchanalysis.png
    Are the factions balanced?
    I also measured how often a faction wins and dies at first to check the faction balance (30 runs, patch 1.0 - 1.04):

    factionbalance.png

    You can clearly see the faction imbalance. The Vlandia and Khuzait kingdoms are mostly the winners. The empire factions die at first in the tournament.
    More than a third of time the western empire gets destroyed within 150 days.
    Why? There are many complex scenarios.
    Western empire is attacked most of the time by Vlandia, Battania and Southern empire. In every run this kingdom fights at least with 3 other kingdoms at once. I can understand that the emipire factions hate each other due to the lore of the fallen empire. But factions like Khuzait are too aggressive players which early invade the northern/southern empire. Vlandia and Battania often make peace to conquer the western empire, meanwhile Aserai attacks the southern one. Sturgia are chilling most of the time until they get killed by Vlandia/Khuzait.
    In my opinion the aggressive behavior of the non empire factions is too high, since the empire is already fighting against itself.


    What can the devs. do?
    • Reduce the aggressive behavior​
    • Increase garrison size​
    • Insert some stamina of sieging, so they don't conquer the land too quickly​
    • Smaller factions should make peace and fight against bigger ones more often​
    • Give some lords a small chance to escape after they lost a fight​
    • After escaping from prison lords should spawn in their castle with a small number of troops (20-30).​
    Don't get me wrong, i like the idea that one kingdom wants to conquer the map. But this should not happen too quickly.
    There is something missing which i would suggest. Larger kingdoms have larger problems. It should be possible that some clan leaders leave their kingdom with their friends to create a new one if they aren't happy with the policies. This cycles the whole process which is more realistic in my opinion.

    You (the devs.) are really doing a good job. But this is a problem what you can not hotfix in one day. Take time and the singleplayer of bannerlord will be one of the best sandbox games ever. Thank you.

    (Disclaimer) I can understand, if someone says the measurements and the interpreation are missleading due to the small number of runs. But you can clearly see the snowballing and faction imbalance with a few games. Since the community is reporting similiar problems, this has to be a serious thing. (The runs took me 3 days by the way)




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