Sturgia dies, usually Varcheg gets taken by Vlandia quite early.
Western Empire loses Lageta to Battania - always!
Amprela gets taken by Kuzaits - always!
Only different start is in my most recent (beta) run which seems quite stable - Sturgia even managed to take a Battanian city (which i promptly helped get back), didn't lose Varcheg. The rest holds true tho. Also, I'm playing mercs and trying to keep the balance if one faction seems to be getting too strong.