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Some footage from Mariupol was edited into a short film "Our home is on fire" by a Ukrainian journalist on behalf of the family who lived in the city through the siege. They were able to survive and flee to Europe at some point afterward and took the footage with them. It is quite rare because journalists were intentionally sniped while civilians very quickly lost access to electricity and couldn't use phones for filming. This guy had solar panels and was apparently a local geek so he could capture some of this on camera. There are no Eng subtitles yet so it steals a lot of context. But the images at least are important to see and the overall atmosphere is important to feel.

My favourite moment is when the family tries to loot the hit Russian truck and realize that it had very strong armoured windows... but a very weak metal frame and a simple rifle apparently shot and killed the driver. So they laugh at Russian stupidity.
The most heartbreaking part is when they come to visit Kolya's family (the boy, who played a guitar) and find them all dead to a Russian aerial bomb. And they can't even bury anyone.

Last year Girkin said, that if he is allowed to fight, this will be a good sign for Ru military. But if he is imprisoned - the Ru military is doomed. Here's hoping he was right.

NPC99 说:

Unbelievable lies on Russian TV:

No doubt Russian will claim NATO rockets damaged the building of the consulate general of the People's Republic of China in Odesa.

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The Chinese consulate was not hit. It is just situated within a block of the target building. Just like my mom's house, by the way. I only found out where rockets struck in the morning and when mom didn't pick up the phone I freaked out a bit.
Thankfully, she just slept very tightly. We now have to sleep during the day because nights are when rockets and drones are falling. And those who live downtown like my mom... it's the worst.
There was some minor damage to the apartment. Insect-proof nets got carried away by the blast. Some cracks in the ceiling. Some fallen objects, broken vases. I did not inspect the roof yet, could be bad. I expect it's the same with the consulate, nothing huge.
That building that was hit was an office building by the way. No storage spaces there, no soldiers or vehicles anywhere around. I guess they were aiming at a certain building that is in the vicinity but missed it. Probably the same with the other hits tonight.

As to this clown talking about my city, you have to understand that this is internal propaganda. Utesov is a name that maybe means anything to my parents' generation but is mostly remembered by my grandparents' generation. And I am not a young man.
So what's happening there is this bustard lulling the old women in Russia who still remember Utesov's songs about Odessa and their summertime adulteries here. The old women (without higher education, poor and TV-trained) constitute the majority group of the Russian population, and coincidentally Putin's core electorate.

NPC99 说:

Hopefully such heavy attacks intended as a political demonstration of Putin’s power will end soon. They lack any military logic, whatever grain and port infrastructure are destroyed. I’m sorry you’re suffering from his temper tantrum following the Kerch bridge attack.

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Please don't buy into this "revenge strikes" hogwash. All of their strikes are pre-planned. You can not plan and execute such a massive cross-country strike in 12 hours.
They knew the grain deal was expiring. They announced they will not be renewing it. There were some speculations that Ukraine could keep transporting grain even with Russia pulling out of the deal. So they planned to make that physically impossible by destroying all infrastructure they could target.
Of course, these strikes are not guided by strictly military logic. But it's not a demonstration either. It's an attack on the country's civilian economy and long-term ability to provide for itself and to trade with other countries.

Today Putin has to make a decision whether grain deal will be prolonged. Peskov recently mentioned that the deal is over.
I guess this strike sends a message "no grain deal = no kerch bridge".

On a different note, I have now had the two worst nights of my life. The number of rockets and drones in the sky was insane. The crescendo of explosions and trembling walls felt like I was in a frontline city.
They are trying to completely destroy our trade port and all grain facilities in the region. Partially they were successful, judging by what I see. Grain terminals are all blown up, together with thousands of tons of grain. I guess the logic here is to destroy our livelihood for years to come. Which is sort of good at least in a way that they apparently no longer expect to conquer my city and now just want to make us suffer and destroy whatever value they can destroy.

In the meantime, I'm toying with chatgpt to gauge its actual involvement in the current "blogosphere".
It's pretty great. https://chat.openai.com/share/82f0ab24-378e-4815-ad46-338449de6b5e

Andrey Kolesnikov (kremlin pocket journo) released a short article based on his recent interview/conversation with Putin. There was a story about it in the rag, but I can't see it fully translated into English anywhere, so will share some insights that I find hilarious.
NBs by Kolesnikov. I love how petty and peeved Putin sounds and this is supposed to be a PR piece.

Unfortunately, I don't fully believe that either. It's a Russian general for crying out loud. You couldn't be a general in Shoigu's army if you were not a part of the corruption machine. An honest man would have been ousted many years ago.

What probably happened was the guy got sacked as a result of post-Prigozhin purges or whatnot and kitbashed a pretty story to look heroic. All units on all theatres experience some sort of ammo shortage and inadequate coverage by artillery. On both sides. It's bad. Everyone knows that. And nothing can be done either.
He's just like Prigozhin screaming "where is the ammo, Shoigu?" When the answer is - there's objectively not enough ammo for intense daily shelling of the entire front's length, you clown.

NPC99 说:

interesting speculation:

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No, I don't buy this at all.
For one, Kovalchuk is on the record saying the most conspiratorial, chauvinistic, and insane things about Ukraine and the "anglo-saxons", probably superseding those of Patrushev himself. He was one of the main influences on Putin for this war to be started in the first place.

People like to speculate about the "towers of Kremlin" which vie for power behind Putin's back. I think there are really just two towers that hold real power - the "siloviki" (led by Patrushev and FSB) and Putin's personal friends and family (Rotenbergs, Kovalchuk, etc.). Just like the two groups Girkin outlined in his post.

The main difference between these groups is that siloviki are independently powerful and Putin's friends absolutely hang on Putin remaining in power. Once he's out, they will have no protection and no military or political resource to keep what they currently control.
It was said that Prigozhin was originally affiliated with Kiriyenko (Kovalchuk's group). But for the reasons mentioned above, I do not believe the latter group would ever try anything that undermines Putin's power. So I am convinced that Prigozhin's coup was either staged by an FSB-affiliated group (him being a double agent) or that Prigozhin actually went rogue and acted against Kovalchuk's interest, probably still aligning with the siloviki as the result. So him still being alive means a win for siloviki and Putin's buddies being weakened.

Girkin is affiliated with FSB likewise. So this post by Girkin has to be an elaborate ruse, a psyops. To convince the rising Russian fascist public core that Prigozhin is still a Kovalchuk's guy and Kovalchuk and Co want to end the war. When in truth, it has to be vice versa. Putin's life and career depend on how this war goes now. So "friends and family" absolutely are in till the last soldier. While siloviki have not much to gain from prolonging the war or escalating it. I think siloviki are the ones working toward ending the war, but they want to blame Putin's friends for this so that they can keep the support of the rising Russian fascist irredentist core.

June 26: Putin brands Prigozhin as guilty of high treason and vows to punish Wagner accordingly.
June 29: Peskov tells journos he has no info concerning Prigozhin’s whereabouts.
July 10: Peskov says Putin and Prigozhin had a long meeting on June 29.

I love this. I told you they don’t have a state any more. Now it’s too evident. There will be another mutiny soon enough, apparently. Unless regime hard resets before that.

In June we had a slew of massive rocket strikes on our cities and lots of murdered civilians. There was a picture that struck me the most. A grandfather sitting over the body of his 9 y.o. granddaughter right on the street. It was truly heartbreaking. Weeks later our writer Victoria Amelina wrote a poem about this that made my eyes water a little.

Yesterday I found out that Victoria, who was a volunteer, was also killed in a recent rocket strike on Kramatorsk. Just a month after that little girl. Victoria wrote her poems so that we would remember everyone they killed. I've translated her poem and will just leave it here.
Every day is a heartache.

Oh, nice Strugatsky plug.

“Where the grey are the majority, the black come to power.”

Orion 说:

This way, the state regains their monopoly on the optics without having to play the rest of their hand and show how ineffective they are in the face of a bunch of dissidents who just a little while ago were complaining about having no ammunition. So really, we don't disagree.

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See, we do disagree here.
I don’t think that the way the situation was resolved even remotely shows that monopoly on violence was regained, that control was restored. If anything, it shows exactly the opposite, the mutiny being ended not by Putin and his circle, and the rebels not being punished but instead basically rewarded.

Do not look here 说:

Whatever comes out of this, though, I don't think it will have much impact on the current conflict, I'm afraid.

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Au contraire. The whole kerfaffle started after Putin tried to pressure wagners, who were just withdrawing from Bakhmut, to sign contracts with MoD. Likely to throw them into meat grinder again.
As per the “lukashenko deal” wagners are supposedly off the hook now. Which means MoD lost their best storm troops. Even if some Wagners do sign the contract, they will become a part of other MoD units, which already means decreased efficiency.

And that’s not even analysing the hit on morale or possible crackdown on MoD regiments who officially joined mutiny.
I think the impact will be profound.

I disagree. The state up to this point has been very careful to always maintain the monopoly on violence or at least the optics.
It is not as much about legitimacy as about control and cohesion. There is no real sanction for a mutiny if it gets big enough and that’s an important realisation.

Mad Vader 说:

Everyone pays compensations to families. The Americans do this all the time when they screw up and kill foreign civilians in public.

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Dude. It’s not a screw up. It’s a mercenary company gone rogue killing a score of high ranking officers in the course of the mutiny. And as a result it’s leader basically pays a fine.
Russia is literally not a real state after this.

Prigozhin has apparently declared war on Ru MoD.
Psyops? Likely. But that’s a completely new level.
Follow the news closely tonight.

They are not conflicting. It's a huge war being waged along the 500km long front. So Ua forces can be pushing forward in Pyatikhatki and being repelled 50 km to the east under Robotyne.
The rocket+drone strikes on major cities are once again intensifying though. Mostly at night so sleep is scarce.
My acquaintance who is currently serving talked to me the other day. Said that losses in his unit are still low despite them now going on the offensive and storming enemy positions regularly. This improved my mood somewhat.

Tonight a rocket strike hit very close to my apartment. Not as close so that my windows shattered, but the sound and the ground's trembling were terrifying. Another supermarket was destroyed along with my favourite McDonalds. At least 3 people dead.
Yesterday I walked by the sea again. It is absolutely heartbreaking. Firstly, because our beautiful beaches now look like garbage dumps. Secondly, because every piece of a fence, every fragment of a roof, every floating door or sofa is a testament of a life destroyed a hundred kilometers across the bay.
I'm in a very bad mood today.

NPC99 说:

Intense fighting reported as Ukrainian forces go on attack south of Zaporizhzhia

Counteroffensive reported to have begun, with large force pushing assault against Russian positions

www.theguardian.com

The Russians Just Destroyed Their First Ukrainian Leopard 2 Tank

The Leopard 2 and other vehicles were traveling in an tight column along a road outside Novopokrovka or nearby Mala Tokmachka when artillery struck.

www.forbes.com

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Called it.

Adorno 说:

Denmark just sent 2 water pumps (15,000 litres/min) along with rubber dinghies, large tents and a 100kW generator.
I assume they've talked to/coordinated it, with local authorities. But I wonder how much use it is now.

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It will absolutely be useful when the water starts subsiding. We're grateful for all the help we can get.
We'll probably need to drain what remains in the settlements that were affected the least. But I don't know the magnitude of destruction yet, given there are no official reports from the occupied territory and the unofficial ones are horrifying.

We, in my own city, are now experiencing the aftermath of the catastrophe. Beaches are filled with debris from villages and towns washed away by the river. Fridges, sofas, chunks of buildings, and furniture.
And of course another wave of absolutely broken, shocked people just standing there in the refugee centers. Another batch of thousands of my countrymen who've lost absolutely everything. Except for phones and bank accounts.