Mount & Blade was released in September 2008, Warband was announced in January 2009 (4 months later) and the Warband beta was announced in July 2009 (10 months later).
Warband was released in March 2010 (Nearly 13 months ago). Granted, the development process was different for each game and the Warband engine was an evolution, rather than an overhaul, of the original. There's no telling the scope of what's planned for the next game but I'd say it'll be a much bigger step than Mount&Blade to Warband. At this point, if I had to make a prediction about "Mount&Blade 2" it would be: Announcement - Q3 2011, Beta Announcement - Q1 2012, Beta - Q2 2012, Release Q3 2012.
Seawied86 said:
For a development team as small as Taleworlds, I would say we're looking closer to 3. Redoing an engine is no simple task.
Who says they're redoing the engine? Engine modifications will always be made from game to game but I doubt they're starting from scratch. The Taleworlds dev team is much bigger now, as well. I'm not sure exactly but simply looking at forum profiles of the devs and counting those who have some fairly recent activity (and Armagan
) points to 12, which can be considered a minimum.
Just to be clear, my position as a Moderator has given me no extra information whatsoever. This is certainly not any kind of official indicator or announcement and is based, solely, on my own deductions.