Recent content by Oubliette

Btw, I think Orj has his vote on Whoopin, not Adaham (he reverted after reconsidering his reasons for voting).

Whoopin said:

Now who would we learn the most from even if they are innocent:

Alex: find out answer on undo vote - clears suspicions of those that called him out on it
Kris: test association with Merentha, get some answers from those that voted for him and those that didnt.
Locke: clear Alex
Orj: see if his perspective while debating with Whoopin was wolf or innocent
Vilhjalmr: uphold the ritual, best target for completely random lynch, if we wait to lynch him on day 3 it would have same effect as if it was day 1
Xardob: clear suspicion for Alex and Locke, tastiest wolf treat

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Seems like our best chance if we're going to get a lynch. My thoughts:

Alex: not a bad idea, if only because his vote/unvote managed to divide opinion - Merentha, Xardob and Villy saw it as suspect, while Adaham, Locke and Kris didn't. It'd pain me to do it, but as  he's been quiet/busy I haven't been able to get a good read on his innocence.
Kris: since Merentha, Adaham and Whoopin all suspected Kris, and since he seems to suspect each of them to some degree too, I think other lynches will give us more information. Slight concern with him not giving much pro-active attention to his suspicions, but that may have something to do with him starting the day on the defensive. He's still managed to raise some decent points about Whoopin too, which puts him above some of the other lurkers.
Locke:  I usually have a hard time reading Locke because it can quickly get messy with the unavoidable metagaming and paranoia that living with another player IRL can bring, but here also because he hasn't yet expressed his suspicions on any other players. It's not his style to throw out bits of suspicion in the hope it sticks from what I remember, but I'd obviously rest a little easier if he can manage to share some suspicions before the end of the day. His lynch wouldn't offer much interaction with our more vocal players, but could illuminate Xardob and VIlly better.
Orj: I was a bit wary of Orj to begin with, and since then he's yo-yoed up and down on my list of suspicions. Seemed to be parroting fairly superficial pro-village ideas early on, which tallied with how I remember him playing the Jack in Locke's game, added to an early reason for voting Whoopin here which didn't seem sincere. But he looked better as the game went on, mainly for standing his ground with Whoopin, but less so for trying to root out Villy, and I'm unsure about the vote on Adaham. There is some interesting interaction between Orj and both Whoopin and Adaham - I thought Mer too at first but looking back there's very little traffic either way.
Vilhjalmr: lurks himself and now votes Alex for lurking, while his suspicion of Alex rises back up now that there is pressure to avoid being lynched, though it seemed to have diminished before. Also, suspected Adaham after being called out by Merentha. Seems like one of the better choices, and there is some more interesting interaction between him, Merentha and Adaham (as well as any others who called him out).
Xardob: gained some suspicion earlier for keeping the pressure up on Alex and Kris without voting (compare with arguments directed to okiN here) while claiming Alex seemed to be trying to get an easy lynch on Kris. I have got tunnel vision with Xardob in the past when he's been innocent - I'm not adept at reading his style - but he's made some decent points in the last few pages and can be a useful villager to have around. Not so much evidence to be gleaned here either if he were to be lynched.

For now, I Vote: Vilhjalmr, as he seems the best bet in terms of inherent wolfiness plus potential evidence we could get out of it. I'm going to be a little busy in the time running up to the deadline, but I'll try to keep an eye out incase I need to consider moving my vote to help reach a lynch.

Whoopin said:

Oubliette said:

@Whoopin:  I'm too tired now, but I'll answer your question comprehensively when I wake up. The short version, without giving your post the attention it deserves, is that there were only a few things (Mer announcing someone on his bandwagon, and the reluctance to vote Adaham) that I've found suspicious, and I hadn't considered - or believe likely - the link between Kris and Merentha - partly because I haven't been particularly suspicious of Kris's behaviour so far.

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Happen to see any other connections? That distance vote is the perfect crime and only leads to advantages unless it becomes under suspicion. Also theres still a reason I am gonna keep my vote on Kris - its a bummer no one asked why.

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Let's hear it then. Also, I don't mean to be obtuse, but other connections between what specifically?

Whoopin said:

If we do decide to lynch its a good to have some theories in play to dissect. We both agree Mer is wolfy, but hes also a great player and a major loss if we fail - so one good way to test the association is to whoop the associate. Sorry man its not your fault, you can blame your packmate.

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But if Kris turns out to be innocent, how will that affect your suspicion on Merentha?

Whoopin said:

Yeah, its tough looking for suspicious activity - kinda fun though. So youre also suspicious of Merentha, you have even seen him in action many times.

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Yes, for the wolf-on-the-wagon post and how it marked both Kris and people who were voting him as wolves which didn't make sense to me, but I'm not sure if that's enough to warrant a lynch. Also, for the record, this is the first game I've played with Merentha.

Whoopin said:

Good reply, if you have a theory I want to read it.

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We haven't done badly to generate content given the circumstances, but 14 pages is still a bit short for a well-developed theory just yet. However, I think it's a reasonable assumption, as Kris says, that at least one of the wolves might attempt to influence the village by being vocal. And looking at the interaction between the three players who have most tried to assert themselves on the village I don't think you're working together. At the least, Adaham and you are unlikely to be packmates because there's been no attempt to distance yourselves from each other. Possibly Merentha and Adaham could be if you saw Merentha's theory as a way of distancing himself from Adaham but without intending to vote him until I did, but then I would expect them to sustain their suspicion on each other rather than retracting it as Adaham did. There's also the possibility that you and Merentha are packmates, given the way you want to lynch Kris to test his association to Merentha, which could inadvertently make us trust Merentha more if Kris turns up innocent... but I don't put too much weight in this style of speculation unless it can be supported by more evidence. Generally I find it's easier at this stage to work backwards and eliminate people you don't think could be packmates, and then identify the pack once you've got one wolf or a trail of innocents so you can judge other people's interactions with them better.

Xardob said:

Oubliette said:

Just a thought, but wouldn't it work better for Merentha to point out wolves on the bandwagon if he knew Kris was innocent? That is, unless he never intended Kris to be lynched, but the wolf on the wagon theory partly relies on being vindicated by the lynch candidate being revealed as innocent so that people then look at the wagoners. The way Merentha phrases it seems to support this, since he's calling it early on for future use, but if Kris was a wolf and got lynched people would be less inclined in following up his theory and scrutinising the bandwagoners.

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It's much easier to analyse this case if we consider Merentha's actions regardless of Kris being his packmate. Merentha could be diverting suspicion away from Kris to the other members of the bandwagon, especially Adaham and Whoopin who are very vocal and draw attention easily. He could also be leading the village in the wrong direction, knowing that everyone on that bandwagon but he was innocent. This scenario works if Kris is a wolf or if he's innocent.

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It still hinges on whether you think Merentha was sincerely aiming to get Kris lynched or just to divert the attention to the bandwagoners. If the latter, then it works regardless of Kris's role. If the former, then it makes less sense for Merentha to say what he did if Kris was a wolf, since he'd be playing for the trust points that would come from sacrificing his packmate, while raising the possibility of a wolf on the wagon would undermine that strategy.

Xardob said:

My point is, we shouldn't be basing our suspicions on the interactions of two players. For we to nail two wolves like this, the circumstances have to be exactly as we imagine them, which is very difficult to happen. This method also gives an advantage to the wolves. It's much easier for them to incriminate innocents by interacting with them. Much better to just analyse actions individually.

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Interaction analysis is actually quite useful, at least I think so. I generally look where it occurs (or doesn't) between confirmed (read lynched) players and living players though, rather than between two players with unknown roles for the same reasons you said. Since one of the main concerns for wolves is dealing with their awareness of what their packmates are doing, you cut off a lot of possible evidence by just analysing actions individually. Encouraging this  can lead to innocent lynches just as easily, if say a player is focused on heavily without reference to how that players actions fit in with the bigger picture.

okiN said:

Whoopin said:

I wanted to propose the idea that we lynch Kris today (get the votes going guys), so we can know more about Merentha tomorrow.
It will provide many answers and angles for us to review after the evidence, and I think its the best bet if we decide to lynch.

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Like I said, I disagree. I don't think there's any guarantee it'll get us anywhere.

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I agree with okiN on this count. What Kris's lynch will reveal won't necessarily help us split up and distinguish between Merentha, Adaham, and Whoopin. If we're going to reach a lynch today I think this should be our main concern since it will give us much more to go off. The downside is, of course, that unless there is someone we suspect who helps split them up, it could mean losing one of the village's more valuable players.

okiN said:

Whoopin said:

I honestly see the no-lynch as more of a wolf advantage (guaranteed another feeding of their choice) and Oublie made it clear that its not really beneficial either way so the gain vs risk isnt the best.
I also think its critical that we get the most information quickly, to prepare for the futuer and delaying a day slows down information. Sure we could be wrong about Kris, but if we are right then we got lots of answers flowing in. I know theres no rush other the time limit - but the less information we have the less effective we are at getting more.

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Now, here we do agree. If we just sit on our hands this turn, we're giving the wolves the initiative. They can take out a potential danger, they can use their choice of kill to lay guilt at someone's door, or they can just kill someone at random and keep doing whatever it is they're doing. Either way, the ball will be in their court, they'll be gaining an advantage over us, and we'll have gained nothing. How could any of you want that to happen?

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A NoLynch would give the wolves an initial advantage, but later on the extra player would give us another day before the wolves could outnumber us, so it does have some use. Right now it would be tantamount to extending Day 1 in order to give us more time to make a better case for lynching somebody, rather than rushing it. Though, maybe it would be better saved in case we need it on a later day when there is more at stake.

Anyhow, if we're going to have any hope of reaching a lynch people need to put forward cases and suspicions (which will help even if we don't make a lynch).

Whoopin said:

Six: Adaham proves useful and asks the question I wanted to read the answer to. Now youre reading defense justification after its already clear he voted for not knowing. Also the vote was encouraged, I dont think joke votes need encouragement. Followed by a get-off-my-sack-I-dont-know-what-to-say in sailorese from good old Captain Packmate.
Seven: Attempting to solidify current expected playstyle that would never attempt a ruse described in Whoopin thought One.

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I could see this as a good way for a wolf to justify a vote which started from nothing, and which could lead to a lynch, but I'm not sure about it being linked to Kris. To distance themselves properly, I would have expected Kris to play along and treat Merentha's vote as serious, but his jokiness just undermines it. Kris interacts with Adaham in a similar way to Merentha.

Whoopin said:

Eight: You all were paying attention on this one, he is the wagonwolf cause no one would expect it to be the one holding the reins.

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Just a thought, but wouldn't it work better for Merentha to point out wolves on the bandwagon if he knew Kris was innocent? That is, unless he never intended Kris to be lynched, but the wolf on the wagon theory partly relies on being vindicated by the lynch candidate being revealed as innocent so that people then look at the wagoners. The way Merentha phrases it seems to support this, since he's calling it early on for future use, but if Kris was a wolf and got lynched people would be less inclined in following up his theory and scrutinising the bandwagoners.

Whoopin said:

Ten: Now the game is ON! Its do or die, I glad that  Oubliette actually accepts all that extended future strategy wargarbl because it opened the voting to Adaham and made the vote transition away from Kris smooth so he can always say Oub voted first and would be his fault if we lose our Adaham.

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This would be difficult to get away with I think, and in hindsight can be applied to Merentha's theory too where he claimed Adaham could hop off the Kris bandwagon before its lynch since he had been attacking okiN. It sounds plausible enough but grossly underestimates the intelligence of other players.

Whoopin said:

Fourteen: Says the guy he voted on is a good contributor and reminds us how important his Krisvote was. If it was anything other than serious then other motives come into play. Calls on lynchablejalmr again.

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Slightly tangential, but I notice Villy directed his suspicions towards Adaham after being called out by Merentha.

Whoopin said:

The only current question I have for all of you is clear, thats why I wanted you to read it three times.
What do you think of Merentha's behavior after reading this post. My theory is based of them knowing each other as packies and thats a lead stronger random.

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If Merentha is a wolf I think it's hard to make sense of his behaviour with Kris as his packmate. That makes the lead less strong in my opinion, and although there's one or two things I suspect Merentha for, it remains a less compelling argument for a day 1 lynch.

Captain Kris said:

I'll vouch for him having a broken computer to explain his lack of substantial posts (and in England sometimes deliveries can be late )

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That it is. I'm actually listening out for the door right now instead of getting some sleep, but it does give me an opportunity to make a quick post.

Adaham said:

Oubliette - Here goes one. Where is he? First people call him quiet, then he drops in and votes me (convinced by somebody else....how often does that happen to Oub on day 1?) and now he´s gone again. By now plenty of stuff has been said, so I hope that he´ll share more his wisdom soon, otherwise I´d say he´s smelling fishy (which means wolfy in this case). 60% wolf.

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Alright, I'll explain my vote: simply, when a player appears to be settling into a position where they could potentially lead or mislead the village, I think they naturally deserve extra scrutiny. Merentha's post offered an opportunity, but he appeared reluctant to vote, so I nudged it in the right direction. Anyway, I don't think we would have got the same reaction from you had there been no votes. The same could be applied to Merentha.

Adaham said:

For the majority of the time I had my vote on Kris, I talked about Kris.  For the majority of the time you had your vote on Kris, you talked about okiN.  Difference?

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First of all, I don´t think I have spoken the majority of the time about Okin. In fact, I only pointed out his lurkiness twice, and when he finally appeared, he ridiculed me and an argument arose. Secondly, I don´t recall you talking about Kris more than I did, but you talked your share about Whoopin and me while your vote was on me. So I have to apologize, sorry, I don´t see the difference.

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It seems you're right here. Maybe it's just recency effect in action, but Merentha's theory was posted on the same page you started arguing with okiN too.

okiN said:

Xardob said:

Now that's just a cheap shot. We should be worried about someone reading the thread and not answering on the same day, a couple hours don't mean someone is avoiding the post. Okin could be joking, but Orj used it as a reason to vote.

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I'm afraid everyone took that the wrong way. That was supposed to be me playfully encouraging Adaham to come out with his inevitable rebuttal while I still had time to read it, not a genuine accusation of lurking. He seems to be taking this whole thing a bit personally, but hey, I am what I am, and I don't wear kid gloves.

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I think our misinterpretation may have hinged on you saying something very similar about Villy - sans playfulness - at the bottom of the post just before it.

@Whoopin:  I'm too tired now, but I'll answer your question comprehensively when I wake up. The short version, without giving your post the attention it deserves, is that there were only a few things (Mer announcing someone on his bandwagon, and the reluctance to vote Adaham) that I've found suspicious, and I hadn't considered - or believe likely - the link between Kris and Merentha - partly because I haven't been particularly suspicious of Kris's behaviour so far.

As for the NoLynch/Lynch, I'm not sure one is always going to be better than the other... though probably inclined to NoLynch for reasons I said earlier. If we do lynch it's important to not rush or be panicked into bandwagoning before the deadline though.

Merentha said:

oh boy, pre-post window. 

Hang on a second actually... if you think there's a wolf on the bandwagon, Merentha, why are you still voting for Kris?

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Because there being a wolf on the bandwagon doesn't preclude Kris also being a wolf.  See above, specifically Adaham holding a vote on Kris while verbally attacking others. It only becomes a gamble or a danger for me to keep a vote on Kris if two wolves are on the bandwagon and staying on it.

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It may not preclude Kris also being a wolf, but it doesn't seem plausible to me. I originally thought the opening exchange with Adaham and Kris was a bit unusual, and Adaham voting Kris while attacking okiN would fit with this, but only if Adaham didn't expect Kris to be lynched or if he was prepared to lynch his packmate. I assumed the former wasn't likely as he was still vocalising his suspicion of Kris, and would expect more of a response from Kris if the latter were true.

Regardless, it still seems a strange way of rationalising it to me: if I thought a wolf was bandwagoning on the person I was also voting for, it would at least put doubt in my mind over the person I was voting for. In this scenario I would see the more reliable lynch candidate to be the bandwagoner.

Merentha said:

Adaham, Whoopin, and Kris are currently running themselves way up in my list.  Both Adaham and Whoopin jumped on what seemed to be the only real attack (as it was intended) very quickly while simultaneously attacking a second person.  Adaham jumped onto Whoopin very quickly as well.  In both cases, Adaham found a strong player and started backing them, one in votes and one in words.  While not necessarily damning, its...interesting.  It covers his bases and allows him deniability if he knows the people he's jumping on are guilty (or innocent, for that matter).  Adaham jumps on the Kris vote, while attacking okiN.  This means that should Kris be a wolf and come close to dying, Adaham has a long history of being suspicious of okiN and can switch away from Kris, preventing a lynch or causing one on someone else.  Whoopin does the same, but unfortunately, he's a bit eccentric fairly consistently.  On the other hand, Adaham following Whoopin on this count allows him to throw blame on Whoopin as well, should people eventually start thinking about Adaham being a wolf.  Backing someone, consistently, casts blame on both the person being backed and the person doing it.  It ties Whoopin to go down with Adaham should Adaham be discovered wolf.    Not a bad way to go, if you've got three wolves.  Sure, keeping them around gets you a voting block, but the power of a voting block wanes as it becomes more obvious.

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As this is about the most cogent theory I've heard so far, added to okiN's post, Vote: Adaham. It will be interesting to hear what he says.

Merentha said:

If people remember, in the second game, the two people pushing hardest for a no-lynch were Archonsod and myself.  We were both wolves.  The general trend, so far, especially with so many people not voting yet or waiting to even talk, seems to be to just let the day go towards a no-lynch.  I have mixed feelings about that.  On one hand, we're currently at our longest odds of catching a wolf by random lynch.  On the other, we have enough time to make a (very tenuously) informed lynch and not lynching gives us absolutely zero chance of killing wolves.

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As far as I can see, NoLynching would also have the benefit of giving us an additional day before the villains outnumber the villagers, so we'd be sacrificing our Day 1 lynch for perhaps a lynch on Day 5 or 6. It would grant another opportunity for specials to act, and I daresay our later lynch would be a bit more informed than one on Day 1. But it might deprive us of evidence that a Day 1 lynchwagon would give us on Day 2.

Alex_Augmented said:

Oubliette said:

Xardob, for instance, stands out to me as someone who has been keeping up the pressure on both Kris and Alex, arguably 'easy lynches' or the closest we have to that, without committing his vote. Arguably,

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lol

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What?

Sorry I didn't manage to post yesterday. A few thoughts after reading up:

Merentha said:

Now, of the votes on Kris.  I believe that at least one of the votes on him is (or was, I'm including Alex in this count) a wolf's.  There are enough wolves in play right now and they're definitely smart enough to be actively involved instead of trying to wait until someone gets to four and then bombvote them to a lynch.  Kris did get voted on, quickly, and if a wolf is going to vote, it makes sense to join a bandwagon.  Alex, why did you vote and then unvote on...really little to no explanation?

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Don't think I've ever seen a wolfpack bombvote except at endgame, but there are other ways for them to play without bandwagoning like Adaham or Whoopin (players I'd expect to pressure others) did, so I don't know how reliable it is to assume one of them is a wolf. It's interesting that your bias here - that a wolf has joined the bandwagon on Kris - would benefit you as a wolf for putting the first vote on Kris, despite the fact that you didn't suspect him at the time. Added to this is the honesty bonus that a wolf would get from pointing out a potential wolf on their own bandwagon.

I also think that voting isn't the only way for a wolf to help the village lynch someone. Xardob, for instance, stands out to me as someone who has been keeping up the pressure on both Kris and Alex, arguably 'easy lynches' or the closest we have to that, without committing his vote. Arguably, he's doing more to keep up the chances of lynching Kris than Alex did with his vote, despite suspecting Alex for trying to get a fast lynch.

Hang on a second actually... if you think there's a wolf on the bandwagon, Merentha, why are you still voting for Kris?

Whoopin said:

Orj said:

He wasn't the Joker in the beginning of that game. Gculk was the Joker, but he ****ed up so royally and got himself poisoned that when Gculk was replaced, Locke switched the role to Kris.

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Whoa thats complicated! Good thing they are just notes - guess no trend there.

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Not only that, but Kris's previous efforts as villains have always been without packs, hence why I asked before. If he's a villain his behaviour should be different still.

Captain Kris said:

...a pressure vote on day 1 doesn't really get you anywhere because people are just settling into the game.

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That's partly the point I think. If you do it later on the wolves have had time to settle into their role.

Alex_Augmented said:

You telling him to read games where you've featured, comes across as a defense, as if it's supposed to make him unvote. But yet, we haven't seen anything from you yet apart from some spam posts, some hastily formed posts etc, so how is he meant to compare it?

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I think Kris just meant that Mer could read it so he'd be as familiar with Kris's playstyle (yes, it is implied) as everyone else's. It's not like there's a rule where you have to have produced something before you can want people to compare it with previous games.

Captain Kris said:

EDIT: I think I was a villain in my last game haha no innocence there.

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In Locke's game, you mean?

You disagree with yourself there:

Captain Kris said:

First time I've been on in a few days, I quite like the new site layout. Also go read some games I've been in Merentha you ***** get acquainted with my gameplay.

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What else would Mer have gained from reading previous games you've played in if not your style/gameplay (whatever you want to call it)? That is, apart from sympathy...

That sounds like Kris.

The only thing that stands out to me was that he immediately told you to look back at previous games he's played, which suggests he's aware of how he plays, so it's not that strong a defence when he could simply be emulating it. Seff does a very similar thing, having an ostensibly anti-town playstyle which he adopts every game so you can't vote him when he is scum because, hey, that's Seff. Ignoring playstyle though, it's still hard for me to see his behaviour so far as notably anti-town.

Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted. You may wish to review your post.

Nice raging there, Kris.

Orj said:

Whoopin said:

Its been a good read so far and setting up a bandwagon on Captain seems like a good idea based on the fact every game has a noobiewolfie.

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Not this one. This is an allstars game, remember? I think we've all played villains, and I know some of us are rather good at it. Pressure votes can be helpful, yes, but this early on it's clear they aren't serious, and so a pressure bandwagon on Kris does nothing right now.

I do believe you just made a post that appeared to be helpful commentary without actually saying anything.

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I think the pressure vote was - they can be - useful; it did at least give us some reactions to gauge. And if that snowballs or directs us to someone else then it gets us further than we would by just discussing the setup.

That, and I don't think your accusation matches up.

Unvote. Out of the random voting stage, it seems, and into the random joking stage.

Thanks for your professional and, at times, wondrously patient moderating, Adaham, for what has been a thoroughly enjoyable game...  And not just because this is only the second game I've actually won (this time without purposely initiating a mass roleclaim too). I guess I must be doing something right to avoid getting eaten lately... *looks at scumhunting record*

Shatari and Magorian (sorry about the lynch back there) played well, despite me being paranoid of them, as did Ativan which goes without saying. Kudos also go to Ruthven for what was arguably the most useful roleclaim of the game, and Alex for his successful hunting of Griff against the odds (left to him by Bugman). I like to think that I was more of a help than a hindrance to the tavern, and maybe that I kept the game moving at times when it seemed to stagnate.

I also look forward to seeing the kidnapper used again. It was pretty inventive, though bearing Ativan's point in mind it may need tweaking. Like a necromancer who ritualistically kills his targets only for them to rise from the dead and take over the villagers when they outnumber it. Maybe the village could get his spell book upon lynching him, allowing them to raise a willing comrade back to their side, or augment those who remain with special powers. 

Adaham said:

Oubliette, the mysterious guy in the black-leather coat mumbled something very long and complicated and walked away into the darkness of the woods. (Innocent)

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Merentha said:

(What Mer said)

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I agree with that. It was just the bit about specials being able to narrow down their guesses to which specials are in play which was wrong. As soon as another special or the alpha werewolf is killed, a special will, however, know for certain what setup we are in, whereas the villagers have to wait for more than one to be confirmed. 'Course, if we're in the second setup, we might not know it until the end of the game.

Seff said:

Where was the signup for this game? Would have liked to participate.

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It was by invitation only.

Merentha said:

Well, its been a while.  Anyhow, I like the randomization of the game-type and whether or not we have certain specials.  Interesting.  Anyhow, this means that the Specials can narrow the guess as to which other specials are in play.  If the wolves have an alpha, they know they're in one of the first two types, if there's a seer, the seer knows they're in 1 or 3, and if there's an angel, they know we're in 1 or 4.

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I don't think it makes much of a difference. With 25% chance for each setup, each special/special werewolf has a 50% chance to occur. Even though the specials/alpha wolf can rule out the scenarios where their role doesn't feature, the odds of the other roles featuring is still the same. The only way to ascertain what scenario we are in will come from lynches and night results, or if a special realises they've been blocked during the night.

Merentha said:

If the villagers manage to lynch the alpha wolf, do they get a different victory message than if they lynched a normal wolf?

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I'd assume so since it's treated as a different role.

Alex_Augmented said:

Alright, m*****z.

Vote: Oubliette

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I will randomly Vote: Merentha. kthx