I knew that Warband was a way of testing the waters...
But they can't honestly base predicted sales of Bannerlord on a game that frankly looks 10+ years old, has clunky controls, very poorly explained gameplay and a steep learning curve! I mean only the most ardent fans of the genre would take the plunge and stick around long enough to figure the game out. First couple of hours I really struggled, and thought 'dear lord what have I done?!'...
Warband is not an easy game to get into at all. The few who persist will find a diamond buried under the rough sure, but like I say, only a few I imagine would stick with it!
But Bannerlord is a different proposition all together! Firstly it's far more visually appealing so I dare say quite a few more people might be willing to try.
I would say that it would definitely have a market on consoles, simply because there is no other games like that. RTS is a genre that is really thin on consoles.
I'd say the console game market has become stagnant and its crying out for more games likes this!