Ukraine Today

Users who are viewing this thread

Source: CNN

After 50 days, the war is poised to enter a critical new stage:
  • War moves to the east: Putin has revised his war strategy to focus on trying to take control of Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials familiar with the latest US intelligence assessments. Ukraine is bracing for a massive escalation, with one official warning of a battle that “will remind you of the Second World War." Satellite images show increasing numbers of Russian troops and armored vehicles pouring into eastern Ukraine.
  • Different terrain: The eastern territory is where Russia holds many more advantages than in its earlier assault on northern Ukraine and the capital, Kyiv. The battle would take place on open terrain rather than the close fighting in urban and wooded areas. The region also borders southwest Russia, allowing Russian forces to avoid the sorts of sustainment, logistics and communication problems that derailed their all-out invasion of the country nearly from the beginning.
  • Rush for weapons: The US is ramping up its commitment to Ukraine — sending an additional $800 million worth of weapons and ammunition in a package that includes Mi-17 helicopters, Howitzer cannons, Switchblade drones, counter-artillery radar systems and protective equipment to guard against potential chemical attacks. For weeks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded with world leaders for more arms and equipment.
  • Human catastrophe: Since the invasion began, more than 4.6 million people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries and thousands of civilians have died, including children, according to the UN. The World Health Organization has verified nearly 120 attacks on health care since the invasion began. Trapped residents in cities under bombardment from Russian attacks have reported no food, water or medicine, and aid blocked from entering.
  • Accusations of genocide, war crimes: US President Joe Biden described the atrocities in Ukraine as "genocide" for the first time this week. Ukraine's prosecutor general is investigating 5,800 cases of Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity, including the intentional targeting of civilians. Images of at least 20 bodies strewn across the street in Bucha emerged this month, while dozens of evacuating civilians were killed in a Russian missile strike on a train station. It followed bombings of hospitals, schools and a theater where hundreds of people, including children, were sheltering.
  • NATO: Putin started the war demanding NATO cease expanding east and admitting new members. While Zelensky has accepted his country will not become a member, the war has united the West against Moscow. Finland and Sweden — nations that are officially non-aligned – are edging ever closer toward joining the US-led military alliance.

Im curious as to how the EU countries will react as the atrocities and war crimes are becoming more frequent and intense.
Some countries bordering Ukraine are ramping up their engagement by not only providing defensive weaponry but also tanks. Finland & Sweden are in serious talks of joining NATO and America is sending more and more weaponry to UA, preparing them for a long war.
 
I've heard this morning that regular Ukrainian infantry has reached Mariupol to reinforce Azov.
https://novynarnia.com/2022/04/13/m...yna-ishla-na-proryv-bagato-potrapyly-v-polon/

They were Marines from inside Mariupol. One part joined up with Azov at the Azovstal facility, one part stayed at Azovmash plant (meanwhile captured) and one part tried to break out and got captured or worse.

https://novynarnia.com/2022/04/13/k...-zapysaly-video-pislya-uspishnogo-zyednannya/

"One group, led by Brigadier General Volodymyr Baranyuk, decided to break out of the encirclement towards the front line with a column of equipment. As a result of the fire, she was dispersed, partially surrounded and taken prisoner. The fate of most soldiers in this group remains unknown. Some of the fighters were killed or wounded. The second group, about two hundred fighters, successfully merged with the regiment of the Azov National Medical University in Mariupol, moving to its position at the Azovstal plant. The largest group at the Azovmash plant was taken prisoner by Russian troops and DNR members."


Btw: Prophetic interview with Zelenskiy`s military advisor from 2019. Absolute must watch to understand the whole scale:
 
Last edited:
Meanwhile: Bye bye, Moskva. The flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, sunk: that's going to piss people off in the Kremlin... :lol:

Interesting excerpt from the article:

The Slava-class cruiser was the third largest vessel in Russia's active fleet and one of its most heavily defended assets, naval expert Jonathan Bentham from the International Institute for Strategic Studies told the BBC.

The cruiser was equipped with a triple-tiered air defence system that if operating properly should have given it three opportunities to defend itself from a Neptune missile attack.
In addition to medium- and short-range defences, it could engage six short-range close-in weapon systems (CIWS) as a last resort.
Mr Bentham said Moskva should have had 360-degree anti-air defence coverage.
"The CIWS system can fire 5,000 rounds in a minute, essentially creating a wall of flak around the cruiser, its last line of defence," he said.
If the strike is proven to have come from a missile it "raises questions over the capabilities of the modernisation of the Russian surface fleet: whether it had enough ammunition, whether it had engineering issues".
"Essentially, you'd have thought that with that three-tiered anti-air defence system it would be very hard to hit," the military expert added.

So their third biggest, most heavily defended warship either had no ammo, didn't work or wasn't controlled properly.
 
It's possible that the ship defense operators were distracted by drones.
Drones - what they can't do? Is the lesson of this war.
In any case, while this is a huge prestige loss for Russia, it's not actually that important as they are still maintaining the blockade unchallenged.
 
It's literally the same thing from the Falklands War, CIWS is basically just put a ton of bullets downrange at a projectile that's faster than a bullet and hope something connects before it hits its target. Point defense is a bit of a joke against advanced munitions capable of beating soft-kill measures, the same thing could easily happen to an American surface warship.
 
I am not really sure in what world is a bullet fired from an anti aircraft 30mm cannon slower than a subsonic cruise missile. Secondly, missiles head for ships directly, their angular velocity is not that high. Thirdly, CIWS are only a last resort as the ship should be able to engage missile with its S-300s at long range (that may be unusable due to the ship not seeing the missiles due to curvature of the Earth) and OSAs at medium to short range. By all means it should have been able to defend itself.

No matter how you twist it, hitting the cruiser with a salvo of two anti-ship missiles that have small warheads is either an incredible luck, incredible incompetence on the Moskva or an incredible skill coupled with precise circumstances (such as the storm or the 180 degree limited targeting radar being distracted by the drones). Or likely the combination of all three.
 
I am not really sure in what world is a bullet fired from an anti aircraft 30mm cannon slower than a subsonic cruise missile. Secondly, missiles head for ships directly, their angular velocity is not that high. Thirdly, CIWS are only a last resort as the ship should be able to engage missile with its S-300s at long range (that may be unusable due to the ship not seeing the missiles due to curvature of the Earth) and OSAs at medium to short range. By all means it should have been able to defend itself.

No matter how you twist it, hitting the cruiser with a salvo of two anti-ship missiles that have small warheads is either an incredible luck, incredible incompetence on the Moskva or an incredible skill coupled with precise circumstances (such as the storm or the 180 degree limited targeting radar being distracted by the drones). Or likely the combination of all three.

Serves me right for not looking up the missile used but while the muzzle velocity of a Phalanx CIWS is high the drop-off is sharp and sudden. And my point is that the CIWS would have to be used on account of all the other factors mentioned.
 
No matter how you twist it, hitting the cruiser with a salvo of two anti-ship missiles that have small warheads is either an incredible luck, incredible incompetence on the Moskva or an incredible skill coupled with precise circumstances (such as the storm or the 180 degree limited targeting radar being distracted by the drones). Or likely the combination of all three.
Ukraine's vehicle-based launch system for Neptunes has four tubes, so they probably fired all four of them. To Hawk's credit, the same thing could happen to an American ship, because by nature the saturation point of any point defense system is equal to the number of point defense weapons that can defend against an attack in any given direction. This is regardless of how many targets you can track and the precision with which you can track them. If you have only two CIWS platforms, then your saturation point is two. If they're positioned fore and aft and the superstructure blocks the line of sight of one platform because the attack is from the front or rear of the ship, then your saturation point is one. Any number of simultaneous threats beyond your saturation point requires your point defense to defeat threats in significantly smaller windows of opportunity. If drones were involved (I don't know that it's been confirmed) then their significantly lower speed and pattern of flight would quickly out them as lower priority threats, which is a point where American systems might have an edge.

The only advantages a lone American ship is likely to have in this regard are volume of fire and target prioritization. The US Navy doesn't send a ship the size of a cruiser out on its little lonesome, though. Our Navy moves things around as squadrons or carrier strike groups, the number of cruisers not in CSGs can be counted on your fingers (might not even need two hands, can't remember for certain), and every single cruiser is part of a formation that includes an entire destroyer squadron. Some of the frigates the Russians have in the Black Sea Fleet don't even have CIWS on them, whereas the Arleigh Burkes (destroyers) and Ticonderogas (cruisers) are loaded with counter-missile defenses and have been since the 80s when the Aegis system became a thing.
 
Russia claims there were no casualties but some reports indicate many have died, with families searching for their sons.

Danish news reports that Czech Republic (can we say Czechia now?) are helping repair tanks (such as T-64) and other military vehicles from Ukraine.
 
Danish news reports that Czech Republic (can we say Czechia now?) are helping repair tanks (such as T-64) and other military vehicles from Ukraine.

Ukraine approached Czech Republic with this request, and it was approved today. Czech defense industry will now receive contracts to repair Ukrainian armoured vehicles, including reactivating the mothballed vehicles. First batch should be T-64, but it's expected that this cooperation will be expanded to other vehicles.

Source is press release of the Ministry of Defense.
 
Is it a coincidence that it is again to support an invasion of Russia? :shifty:
I tell you a secret: The 22+ Russian Battalion tactical groups currently in Izyum are better equipped than the whole German ground forces if we talk about quantity.

We have ~24 mechanized/motorized infantry battalions in our armed forces (9 Panzergrenadier, 8 Jäger/Gebirgsjäger, 1 Seebataillon (naval infantry) and 2 Fallschirmjäger regiments). Our 6 tank battalions and 4 artillery battalions would barely be sufficient to reinforce them with even one company/battery after the Russian BTG model.

And now about our anti-air forces: 14 Patriot, 2 MANTIS, 3 Ozelot. No, not battalions, systems.

During the cold war, we had 18 anti-air battalions and 83 (!!!) artillery battalions with 1,100 howitzers and 400 MLRS. I did my 9 month duty in 2006 at the Panzerartilleriebataillon 515. Of course it has long been dissolved since then as everything else within up to 80 kilometers from where I live.

For the up to 100 requested Leopard 1A5 there would be 4,000 105mm rounds available. It`s absolutely useless to ask Germany for heavy weapons if it`s about immediate availability.

Here is what Germany can and has delivered to Ukraine:
  • 1,000 Panzerfaust 3 anti-tank weapons on 26 February 2022, breaking a long tradition of banning weapon exports to active warzones.[108][109]
  • 500 Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems, on 26 February 2022[109][110]
  • 2,700 9K32 Strela-2m anti-aircraft missile systems, on 3 March 2022.[111][112]
  • 5,100 MATADOR anti-tank weapons via Dynamit Nobel[113]
  • 2,000 additional Panzerfaust 3 were announced on 23 March 2022.[114]
  • 100 MG 3 machine guns[110]
  • 5 million 7.62×51mm NATO rounds[110]
  • 3 million 5.56×45mm NATO rounds[110]
  • a total of over 16 million rounds by mid-April 2022[115]
  • 14 armored cars[110]
  • "Vector" reconnaissance VTOL drones via Quantum-Systems[116][117]
  • 23,000 combat helmets[110]
  • 20,000 protective-vests in 2014[118]
  • 1,300 bullet-proof vests[110]
  • nightvision devices[110]
  • 1,000 anti-tank mines and 100,000 hand grenades by mid-April 2022[115]
  • €1.83 billion in bilateral aid since 2014[119][120]
  • approx. €4 billion via the EU in the form of grants and loans since 2014.[119]
  • €240 million via the EU in loans in 2022.[119]
  • Loan over 150 million euros via KfW in April 2022.[121]
  • €425 million via the 'Stand Up For Ukraine' pledging campaign and an additional 70 million for medical aid via the EU[122]
  • €1 billion additional military aid to Ukraine for weapons purchases in April 2022[123]
  • One mobile field hospital worth €5.3 million and associated training of medical staff in February 2022[124]
  • Evacuating and treating wounded Ukrainian soldiers in Germany since 2014[125][126]
  • Deutsche Bahn initiated a "railbridge" in March 2022 and began delivering over 10,000 tons of food[127][128]
  • 50 medical transport vehicles[110]
 
Sorry, my reply was meant to hit at the fact that the last time the Czechs made tanks en masse, it was to support the invasion of Russia. It was a joke.

As much as I like to poke fun at the Germans for seemingly doing nothing meme thing (thanks god the German Nordstream *****ing stopped for now, though), this was not it.
 
Sorry, my reply was meant to hit at the fact that the last time the Czechs made tanks en masse, it was to support the invasion of Russia. It was a joke.

As much as I like to poke fun at the Germans for seemingly doing nothing meme thing (thanks god the German Nordstream *****ing stopped for now, though), this was not it.
The 35(t) right? But didn`t they get looted instead of willingly produced for the invasion? At the moment it`s more likely you (or Switzerland because why not) are going to loot our stuff than the other way round.. :grin:
 
Last edited:
Back
Top Bottom