So if we consider your statement being:
- There is no hope that this game will ever not suck
- Those of us who are pissed off are the majority
And other users told you that huge drop after release is a common trend in game industry
Those are not my points. My point is that BL was in the top 10 of Steam sales in 2020 because there was massive interest, but that interest dried up when people realized how busted this thing is AND how the devs don't GAF about user feedback.
It's been a year since siege AI was broken on arrival and the devs still haven't begun to fix it. It's been a year since personalities and skills were broken on arrival and the devs have only made minor tweaks. It's been a year since weapons and armor values+stats were broken on arrival, but instead of attempting to fix core issues the devs have been focused on making minor tweaks to specific weapons or units.
Based on their progress and public statements, the opinion of devs seems to be that the game is mostly done but just requires bugfixing and tweaking. That is out of step with reality and the game will never not suck unless the devs actually WANT to make it not suck.
So you are considering the MP player base as an indicator.
Here we don't take into account the MP player base? I'm lost.
BL is a singleplayer and multiplayer game in early access. That means there should be a substantial user base providing feedback and guiding development into full release. The user base is much smaller than it should be and the devs don't seem to care what they think.
Multiplayer means more people should be currently playing. The fact that the SP campaign has had considerable expansion means more people should be currently playing. This is very simple.
Despite Bannerlord is the sequel of Warband, if we consider both products in terms of marketing, it is not comparable.
Warband is a mature and polished product (10 years+), low price, low price DCL, with great polished mods. Public age range is wide.
Bannerlord is under development (not released), high price, no DCL, mods being under development. Public age range may be less wide.
You stay focused on the drop after release, if we look to the average and peak users in last 30 days from your source:
Warband : average (4K) peak (6,7K)
Bannerlord : average (14K) peak (23K)
Percentage is easy to purposely interpret.
Last 30 days is irrelevant. Look at "all". MB Warband always had a substantial if smaller player base that rose and fell with new updates and releases and mods. Bannerlord had a massive spike of attention that almost completely disappeared. Even now, WB didn't lose most of the core userbase despite BL existing.
Early Access and higher price --> presumably higher quality means there should be sustained interest in BL as new content is dropped on a regular basis and new mods keep popping up - like a TV show vs a movie. New content should mean new eyeballs.
BL does not have that because the game is clearly a step down from WB in everything but graphics and there's been minimal support for modders (who are dropping like flies and also just signed a letter of protest to the devs).
Again, not comparable. let's wait a full release.
All I see there is a good strategical position for the franchise.
Thank you for this analysis.
More seriously, speaking about ranking, Bannerlord faces more competition than warband, and TW better manage correclty the final release.
Speaking of performance, price strategy is also a huge factor.
To make it short, it is too early to really make any conclusion regarding the possible fail/success of Bannerlord.
And to come back to the OP, while TW would better consider wisely which features are to be implemented to ensure the most enjoyable experience for its customers, it is also important for them to stick with their own vision. To give Bannerlord its real identity.
Except that the devs have made clear that their vision for "full release" is basically the same crap as now but with tweaks and bugfixes, not significantly expanding core mechanics (including not implementing many features that were in vanilla WB). And, for instance, they're dumbing down the AI for console release - NOT improving it.
If people wanted this game as-is but smoother instead of significantly fixed, then more of them would be actually playing it.
Your faith in the devs to produce a good game is impeached by the fact that the devs have expressed zero interest in producing a good game.