[WNL] Playoffs analysis [3/4]

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Tardet

Tardet

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WNL : Playoffs Analysis​


Hey guys. I'm aware I might post this a bit late but I honestely wasn't in the mood this morning as you may understand, still I hope it will be somehow instructive for some of you. It will be similar to what LeRoux did for the ECS, with in minds that I do not have his talent to speak about the community. I will try to see what I can do since nobody seemed willing to do it. I hope you guys will like it. I will be posting the first analysis tonight, and will hope to keep them going during the evening and tomorow.
Click to expand...


This WNL has seen thirty teams fighting eachothers to get a chance reaching the playoffs of this famous competition. The least we can say is that we had have our turn of close and tense matches. But as for each major, only the 8 best teams could qualify for the quarter of finals. This week is gonna see them fighting eachothers for a place in the semi-finals . This is their story.



Quarter Final 1
Kurwa vs Unity​

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"Guys don't trolling, I can't play without serious"​

This season of the WNL has been probably one of the toughest for KURWA, having to face Apis Europae three times out of 7 matchs, aswell as Wonwokies and Unity once each. If they eventually ended up getting a draw versus IG at the begining of the season, quite surprisingly, the rest of their matchs (beside their heavy loss vs AE midway) has been a demonstration of why they must be considered as one of the best team of the scene at the moment.

As said above, they already played once versus Unity during this WNL and it went largely KURWA way. This said it's all but not a reason for them to underestimate the francophones as they showed that they fully deserve their place belong the top and are ready to fight hard for this.

It's gonna be a hell of a match for sure and even though KURWA may come into this match with an advantage, I wouldn't be surprised to see the frenchmen forcing them to up their game If they want to keep their confidence going.

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Time to show again what France can do #OneGoal​

Unity has been a group which hasn't stopped growing since its creation. Some may point out that they were already a team with quite a potential under Legends name but there is no denying that they're actually playing their best Warband at the moment and that they can arguably pretend being a top tier 1 team, especially If they can come up with a good result against KURWA.

Still, they're perfectly aware that it might not be a walk in the park and that they're going to need the whole team at their best level if they want to get a chance making it to the semis. It will be important their remain focused but at the same time don't fall too much under the pressure.

The positive thing is that they normally should have been able to work on their mistakes after their first encounter versus KURWA and might change their approach to surprise them.

All in all, the moral aspect is going to play a decisive role in this match.

The Match :​

Map 1 : River Village

Sarranids vs Nords​

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Unity picked an open map, which means that they actually feel confident with their archer and cavalry, atleast on this one. While it may appear a bit difficult to imagine how their cavs could overplay KURWA's ones, it will be interesting to see what Paulo, Rapez or Tigerwhite can do as archers, even Caius if he plays. If they're in form, then we definetly have a game on our hands. But if they don't manage to make a difference in that specific area, then I don't expect them to win more than one or two rounds on this map.

Unity can't allow themselves a sloopy start, they must be extremly focused on the first rounds to gain an early advantage and capitalize on it. If they fail doing so, then it will be really hard to get even some rounds on the board.

The advantage they have is that they had the possibility to watch KURWA playing vs AE last week. So they might a little idea of how they're gonna approach this map. The question being, will they still manage to counter it?

Map 2 : Desolation Valley

Sarranids vs Swadia​

Desolation_Valley.jpg

KURWA also made the choice to pick an open map and this make much more sense to my eyes, according to their core of cav players especially with players like Trebron, Sikici, Relax or Can.

The outcome of this match will depend mainly on how the first map went. It's mainly conjecture at this point, but if Unity have an outstanding performance on their map, and why not, manage to take the lead in the scoreboard, then KURWA might have a bit of pressure going on their nerves and it will be the occasion for Unity to smash them once for all.

But if Unity didn't manage to make somewhat of a difference on the first map, then I don't see how they could do it on Desolation Valley.

If I had to reason in term of odds, I would go for a 75%-25% in favor of KURWA. But myself and odds have never been really good friends so you're warned.
 
Quarter Final 2
Apis Europae vs Freelancers​

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"Kings of Europe"​

There is hardly any team in the Warband history which has been as dominant as AE. 7 finals. 5 Victory. The hold the best record of titles and are not ready to let it go away. This year, the bees are more than never willing to claim their 6th major. On their road, Freelancers which they lost to in the last ECS, in one of the closest final the EU scene has seen, before taking revenge over them during the 3rd week of this season.

There is not much to say about AE that you guys don't already know. If we look at their performance from this regular season, AE is still one, if not the most deadly team on the Warband Scene. During those 7 weeks, they have been facing, Freelancers, Unity and more importantly KURWA three time. If they eventually ended up loosing to them twice, the matchs were each time extremly close and displayed some amazing skillplay from both teams. This said, when AE won over KURWA, it wasn't that close and they showed a clear superiority on this specific match.

For this week though, KURWA won't be their main problem. What they have in front of them is nontheless as dangerous. Nothing less indeed that the team which last year, has prevented them from winning their 6th major, Freelancers. AE is certainly going to have a hard time coming into this match but they will have to let the ghosts of the past away from their mind. If AE want to win this without questionning themselves, they will have to show their best performance, and a full concentration. But these guys are used to that kind of situation and seem more than never ready for it.


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"Cha! Cha! Mario Gomez!"​

Few are those who still remember that Freelancers is a team which has been forming for the second edition of the ECS and not before. The reason for that is quite simple, as soon as they entered the competition, those guys showed that were not here for figuration. They basically stomped everything they had in front of them until the final where they gathered everything they could to take the win over AE.

And I doubt they plan anything less for this edition of the WNL. Their opening match of the season has been a demonstration of talent, winning 12-3 over Irish Rebels and even though they eventually ended up loosing against AE, and later on versus Wonwokies, Freelancers have finished the regular league on a really positive note, smashing in the order, IG, FTW and **. Still, we can wonder how they're gonna perform against a top team, a team of their level actually.

As for AE, I do think it will be important for them not to give too much importance to what happened before. They won one, lost one, now it's a completly different match, and what is at stake is also not the same then during their last confrontation.

The Match :​

Map 1 : San'di'Boush

Sarranids vs Nords​

San_di_boush.jpg

Contrary to the first quarter, things are quite reversed here since they will be playing two close maps, the first one that we don't have to present anymore, I named San'di'boush. It is AE pick, and since they will beging on it first, I do expect them to have a really convincing start on it.

Though, as for each close map, what's gonna really matter is how both infantry core react and play. AE will probably display the the old quatuor, Scar, Deacon, Cleric and M to take things over control but what they will have to face could crush their hope really quickly with some of the most dangerous players of the russian scene, Rempica, Sifon and Zoyka. With the addition of their leader Napoleon, AE could definetly have a really hard time on this map.

Though the bees can count on three of the best archers of the scene, LeRoux, Razer and Neathar. Those three, with their placing and the capacity they have to land headshots in impossible situation might be what AE need to make the difference. To counter them, Freelancers will be able to count on Menethil and Prince, so that is a bit less of ranging power they will have going into this match, still enough according to the skill of those two, would say some.

The cav will also have a crucial impact to conclude the rounds but I don't expect them to be as decisive as they usually are, especially for AE. What I really want to see is the mindgame between Napoleon and M, how they're gonna test eachothers, who will take the first engagement, and who is gonna be decisive in melee for each team.

Map 2 : Verloren

Sarranids vs Swadia​

Verloren.jpg

There is not much to say about this map without repeating myself too much. I didn't see Freelancers playing on it that much, unlike San'di'boush, so I don't know how they're gonna proceed on it.

Though I tend to think that it is going to come down to a control of the important areas of the map, even more than on Sandi. If they can read in eachother's play very well, then that might lead to a really interesting match.

This said, If AE can have an advantage going into this map though, it would be because they had the occasion to play it twice recently versus top team, and twice with a really good result at the end. Once versus KURWA in the semi-final of the ECS2, and once versus Unity, during this WNL. F might want to take a look at AE's gameplay during both of those match, and see If they can pick some similarities bewteen those two matchs, with in minds, to counter it.

I do think it's gonna be an extremly intense match, so don't miss it chaps. My odds are 65-35% in favor of AE. You heard it here first guys.
 
Quarter Final 3
Irish Rebels vs Renegades​

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"The Rebellion is coming"​

Irish Rebels is one of this team, who has been showing quite a constency for a while already, but always failed winning a major. The clan is actually quite old, but took a break and came back around the WNL3, where they had a decent run in Div B, even better during the WNL4 where they finished 5th. Since then, IR has been constently playing in the last quarter of each tournaments they have been participating to, getting the bronze in the ECS2 and the silver in the WMT.

Yet, they are still looking for their very first tittle, which would be a recognition for a team which has always been consider part of the top, but still bellow the big "3" of Warband, AE, KURWA and Freelancers. So there is no need to say that IR is ready to give his best, once again, hoping this WNL to be the good one.
And a positive sign is that they actually don't have to face any of the three teams quoted above before the final, if they manage to reach it.

They will have to beat the new squad of the Renegades, a clan that we hadn't see since the first season of the ECS, where they ended up at the 4th place, closely loosing to IG in the little final. The first confrontation bewteen those two teams, who actually never had the occasion to fight eachothers before, went largely IR way, winning 12-3 over RNGD, one week ago.

In theory, IR could think that they have been quite lucky with the playoffs, and many people might assume the same, but they know it would be a terrible mistake to undersestimate the new french line up. IR simply don't want to give any single opportunity that the renegades could exploit. For that they must be extremly focused as they have been during their last match and rely on their teamplay as much as individual skill.


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"Back in business"​

It's always a speacial moment to talk about my team but I will try to remain as neutral as possible. Renegades is a team which has been playing since the very first competitive day of Warband and used to be quite respected. They had have lots of break which make it hard to speak about "constency" however no one can deny that they have been a top team, finishing 1st of the first WNL regular season, eventually loosing to Union in the semis but getting the bronze over IG in the little final.

This current line up though has not much to see with the old one and that's quite a new RNGD we're seeing in this 5th Season of the WNL. Innitially no planned for this tournament, they had quite a good run during those seven weeks though, loosing to DoF during their opening match but winning all the following ones until their last match against IR where they lost quite heavily showing they were maybe still a bit bellow the new top teams of the scene.

Renegades are going into this match with maybe a bit less pressure then the others because they know that they are not considered as favorite for this edition however they are used to give their very best in every matchs they play and are certainly not gonna make it easy for their opponent.

The key for RNGD will be their teamplay. They're maybe not as skilled individually as most of the IR players, but together they can definetly accomplish miracles. It will be important they enter this match calmy, try to get as much rounds as possible on the board, on their map to consider challenging IR on Reveran Village. The frenchmen are ready to take revenge and IR can certainly expect more resistance then during their last encounter.

The Match :​

Map 1 : Vendetta

Sarranids vs Nords​

Vendetta.jpg

Vendetta is a map which doesn't create unanimity among warbladers but it still the one which is the most popular within old maps like Village, Shariz Village, Nord Town and Port Assault. Apparently it is quite liked by Renegades and according to their 6-0 win over BRO on it, we can understand why.
It is also a map which favorise archers more than cavalry and we know IR is quite known for taking lots of cav, especially on open maps. RNGD probably have a plan, the question being, will it be enough to make them win.

I will be looking at both core of archers during this map. For RNGD, specially at Ryurk who was one of their best ranger back in the days, with Neathar and TornadoX. For IR, Toi, Virus and Sphere will be to kept an eye on. It will also be important to look at the infantry of RNGD. If they manage to step up their game, especially Piccolo and Guy, then we might have an interesting first map going on. Rumors even say an old RNGD warrior might even be here, his name starting with a M!

I do think it is important for Renegades that they get the momentum going on their map. If they fail doing so, it will be even harder for them to challenge IR on Reveran Village.

Map 2 : Reveran Village

Sarranids vs Swadia​

Reveran_Village.jpg

Reveran Village is going to be quite another story and again, the choice makes a lot of sence for IR looking how dominant they were versus Wonwokies on this map. Here it will be their cavs which will be enlighted and RNGD will need an onfire Nubijuki if they want to counter the cav cascade of IR.

And here again, the rangers are gonna play a decisive role.

This map will be also directly affected by the result of Vendetta. If IR won on Vendetta fair and straigh than I doubt RNGD will have the strenght to make the difference on Reveran Village because they won't have any room for mistakes. But if only they manage to show IR that they must be considered as a threat by getting many rounds on their map and take the score lead, then they will definetly have a chance.
 
I probably won't have time to do FTW vs Wonwokies but since they actually had a interview from Competitive Warband Facebook, it's a bit of a lesser importance I guess. Still sorry about that chaps, lots of job to do and my own match to prepare, I hope you will be understanding.

Will try to also update the betting corner so people can bet for the semis and final.
 
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