Alright. I don't know what I can say about the events about the night. We've lost two innocents, both of them Guardsmen, in the last day. Eternal was targeted by the wolves, so I think they probably saw him as a threat. Reading back through the thread, no one really hammered Eternal except for Shatari on page 15 or so, saying basically that Eternal had been lurking, and he dropped the case pretty soon after.
Now looking at how the corporal targeted, he was going after lurkers, in particular Dodes and Amagic:
...I feel our best shot at a lynch is a player who has made his opinions of other players known, and yet lurks. This isn't only because it's informative, because it is, but also because this behavior is characteristically suspicious. Thus, it gives us a much larger shot at lynching a wolf, and once that wolf is lynched, we get enough information to be able to go off of something.
...here's someone that I've found incredibly suspicious since his first post or so. I was actually going to try and get some more information out of him and ask for his thoughts on other people, but I feel this is as good a time as any for the Eternal wolf hunt.
Before I go in-depth analysis on his posts, I'd like to note something - he fits entirely into both parts above. He was joke voted by nobody - and he joke voted on Pillock. Not only is the bandwagon rather scummy in itself, but a red turn on his death would also probably reveal Pillock isn't evil. This is the first information that we'd gain from his death. Secondly, he's lurked. A lot. With a few awkward posts and suspicions here and there. That's as suspicious as it gets.
Either way, no Eternal hunt is complete without specific examples, so onwards we go.
Bloody navymen, can't trust any soldier that's never been in the trenches with the rest o' us.
Late joke vote by the time myself and others were already unvoting. Doesn't show much by itself, but odd placement is as much an indicator as anything. Next post, actually his latest one:
I'm still keeping my scope on you, Pillock. Jumping from one suspect to the next? Keeping up the aggressive detective work to use as your subtle defense, perhaps? I'd hate to be led on a "wolf" hunt by the wolf himself, whomever he might be.
What the hell does this mean? I mean, to sum it up, this is just 'trying too hard'. There's nothing productive in there. There's some vague trying to show everyone that he's still on the hunt and he's very much doing something. Which he is not.
I don't think I could think of anything more wolfy than that. And he'd fit right in with the 'nooby wolf' role. Either way, that's where my vote goes...
Previously to this, he voted Dodes and spent a fair amount of time trying to get Dodes to talk and stop lurking.
After this, Eternal later reversed his position, arguing that Amagic was most likely the wolf, while Dodes was just bored:
I feel Dodes is the opposite of Amagic here, honestly. I think Amagic is the guy that's trying too hard (as I've very, very strongly outlined in a post everyone seemed to ignore) and is a wolf, while Dodes is just the bored and uninterested innocent. He doesn't seem to give a damn about the game, which isn't a particular wolfy thing to do.
He continued gunning for Amagic for several pages, until Mag posted saying that he thought Haresus was more suspicious than Amagic. He disagreed with the case on Haresus completely:
Yeah, I'm not buying the case on Haresus at all.
It's Yeomann or Amagic for me, and that's where my vote stays.
Immediately after that, he began targeting Magorian, saying he suspected that Mr. Aximand was a wolf:
I dislike how he has been primarily defensive, rather than willing to continue a search for an actual wolf (his last post is somewhat better in this respect), but mostly I feel like he's working out how to deal with the game. I think they both deserve that chance.This is not Magorian logic. And that's not even bothering with the idea that neither of them are first-timers and both know what they're doing. Indeed, they are noob wolves in a sense, being inexperienced and all, but they fully know how a werewolf game goes. What's more, Haresus has played what? Three games? That's one more than Dodes, and I don't know how many more than Amagic.
This does not fit. This reeks of a wolf Magorian too. 'They both deserve that chance' is not a valid reason for not lynching a wolf. I have never, ever seen you use that train of thought before and it is so anti-Village that it's despicable. What if Amagic is a wolf and has a special and we let him go because 'he's working out how to deal with the game'?
Going on a broad assumption that both Magorian and Amagic are evil, this would be the perfect way to divert the train.
You would prefer a no lynch to voting for Haresus?
What about the case is not convincing to you?
I never said that. There's still a lot of data to collect from a Haresus lynch, and had your reasoning for not voting Dodes/Amagic been so awfully wolfy, I may have found him a decent lynch candidate. I'll go through the post anyway, but I'll say this:
I'd prefer a no lynch. And that's a hell of a bold thing to say, but I'm convinced Haresus is innocent, simply from this voting pattern and from the weak case on him.
The whole damned case on Haresus stems off the role fishing at the beginning. And he explains himself in this post:
The information was open for everyone to see, including wolves. Discussing it seemed like the obvious way to go back then. And I find it believable, frankly. And I was a guy that bashed Pillock and others for role fishing earlier.
In fact, it's rather ironic that one of everyones' main reasons for jumping on Haresus is role fishing, when we have things like this:
And like Jean, there is no acknowledgement of an argument lost or considered, or further rebuttal. Just avoidance. Won't be forgotten.
Again, rank must only come into play in very specific situations, and is not the equivalent of "being a special". Otherwise, the game would be broken. It is most likely that special abilities, as well as who is evil, was chosen randomly and independently of rank. Rank was likely an additional random choice. But it could not be completely random, as I am not able to have a rank and the ranks of the guards and the navy must be separate. This, the fact that roles must be randomly selected from the entire group of players and the fact that the ranks may only apply to specific groups, demonstrates the fact that there is no correlation between role and rank. As such, the wolves will have to hunt specials in the same manner that they always do.
The two of them then spar for a bit, before Haresus gets shot when most people (including Eternal, after a fair amount of pressuring by Mag).
So, my question is, what is the motive for targeting Eternal? The only two people he really
targeted were Magorian and Amagic, who he seemed to have drawn a connection between. If they are wolves, perhaps they saw him as a threat? He was fairly influential about Amagic, and got a lot of people to suspect him, but he was the only person who really took shots at Magorian. On the flip side, is it possible that the wolves didn't target Eternal for any specific reason? I don't believe that to be the case (the wolves would definitely target their biggest threats first - it's just common sense), but maybe they were trying to draw suspicion to Amagic or Magorian.
While we can't really know for sure, I have a bad gut feeling about Magorian now. Anyone could have made a mistake about Haresus, but I'm not sure about Eternal getting killed. Magorian's a good player, though, and I don't know if he'd be as transparent as to immediately attack the only person who targeted him. At the same time, I don't think any of the other reasons for Eternal's death are as plausible an explanation. I'm hoping some other people can provide some new perspectives, but I'm going to be watching Magorian's posts very carefully for a while, I think. It's possible he's just being framed, so I'm keeping an open mind and my situational awareness up.