Eternal said:
Vieira said:
I dislike his vote on Frisian because his reasoning is very meta-ey, and it clearly shows he is willing to willing to take a great risk voting out specials this early in the game, which doesn't sit well with me in a small game like this. This is because his meta-assumption that the first players received PMs assumes that the first players to post aren't standard villagers, and I doubt there are more wolves than their are town specials. Meaning that if you were to follow his reasoning and that his assumption is correct, then there is more chance you will vote a special than a wolf. Which obviously means there is more chance to vote a special than if you were to focus on all the players, rather than the early arrivals. Obviously, the assumption is unlikely to be correct, but it's the concept that I don't particularly like.
Let's consider a hypothetical game with 3 specials, 3 wolves and 6 innocents. Even with my big bad logic of trying to hunt down those who posted early because they were probably PM'd, we take away the 6 innocents. That gives us a 50/50 shot of getting a wolf, as opposed to a 1/4th shot. You're attempting to argue against my premise on a mathematical basis, while I definitely am justified on a mathematical basis.
I think I was viewing it slightly differently because of the game mechanics. I was viewing along the lines of the chances of not voting out a town special. My reasoning was thus:
1. People don't die when they are voted out, though they lose all powers.
2. Standard innocents can still participate, but only lose the right to vote, whereas a special would lose their ability.
3. So it seemed to me that on Day 1, at the very least, we should try to keep the chances of losing a special minimal, as they can attempt to figure out the wolves during the night, since the role of the lynchee is not revealed.
4. If we voted out a special, we could not return them until Day 4, so I feel until Day 3, and possibly Day 2, we should try to limit the chances of voting out a special.
Obviously, there are a few problems with this reasoning, such as it's not really feasible later on in the game, when innocent votes will be of the utmost importance to win, but I feel it's the best way of approaching today.
I.e on a mathematical basis, I would rather have 25% (3 out of 12) chance of voting out a special, rather than 50% (3 out of 6) chance of voting out a special.
There are a myriad of problems with hunting for those that posted early, notably Frisian's "they could have just seen the thread go up." I think you're all overthinking how seriously I'm taking that method, however. It is just one small tool in addition to many other observations which make me suspicious of someone, not something that you go, "okay, they posted early, now time to find evidence."
These are the other problems with the theory above. The only problem with this defense, is it seemed that it made up the majority of the reasoning behind your vote on Fris.
In other news, good LoS. There is a notable lack of opinions, but I can sympathize because I have a notable lack of opinions too.
It's difficult this early in the game, I agree. I had a larger LoS saved on my laptop, but I left it, so I just rushed that one out.
After that we got some weird speculation which he really didn't seem to feel comfortable pursuing either.
I believe Vieira asked about my MaHuD suspicions and I'm going to elaborate here.
It wasn't really your suspicions I was asking about (though it's nice to see how you feel about MaHuD. I was mainly asking about how you viewed his vote on you and his reasoning behind it, since I didn't notice any form of reaction from you.
I totally just noticed I put a superscript 1 in my LoS, and forgot to provide a footnote. I'll see if I can remember what I was gonna say about it.
Xardob said:
I do need to provide some sort of ranking for my suspicions to make any sense, so here it goes.
Good idea.
Brutus or QuailLover. Then I would put Hitson, Eternal and Frisian. Then Rams, Sootshade, Xardob, MaHuD. Then Shatari and Vader.
MaHuD said:
To me Xardob is acting different from normal
I had noticed this, but it seemed to me that he was trying a different approach early game, as he hasn't been particularly unusual of late.
