[Werewolf] [Archive] Game VII, Day 6, 2 to lynch.

Werewolf game VII

Players:

Alive:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8. Johnathon Andrews
9. Adaham
10.
11. Knight of Cydonia
12.
13.
14.
15.

Dead:

1. Archonsod (Villager)
2. Merentha (Villager)
3. Rathyr (Watchman)
4. Ingolifs (Wolf)
5. okiN (Villager)
6. Hallequin (Villager)
7. Silver (Wolf)
8. Naridill (Watchman)
9. Tarrantmw (Villager)
10. Thingy Master (Villager)
11. Hack McSlash (Wolf)
12. Thus Spake Nosferatu (Villager)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The rules:

They are basically the same, but here's the gist of it, plus the new additions.

There are 15 players. There are four wolves in two packs, against each other. Among the villagers, there are two specials, a pair of watchmen. There is also one sprig of wolfsbane in the village.

The four Wolves attempt to kill villagers or the other pack during the night. They are allowed to discuss their targets via PM before choosing their targets.

The watchmen are allowed to talk during the night, and may each target a house. Each watchman has a 50% chance of receiving useful information about their target. If the two target the same house (which they may decide by PM) there is a 100% chance.

There are also nine villagers.

The wolfsbane is an object, not a person, which travels to a different player each night. The first night, the player to whom it is given, i.e. found by, is protected. The next evening, when I say it is Nighttime, the person who was protected the last night will PM me with the name of whom they wish to place the wolfsbane on next.
Also, if the wolfsbane lands on a wolf, the wolf will notice it, and exit by his back door, thus rendering it useless. It will not automatically pass to another villager during the night, but will be left on the streets, and whoever finds it first gets it (chosen by me).

Example: A receives it Night 1. The next night, he passes it on (and must pass it on), and then B is protected by it during Night 2. He passes it to wolf A, who leaves another way, and then the wolfsbane blows into the street. I choose A to find it, and he is protected Night 4.

The game starts during the day. The village discusses who the wolves are and attempts to lynch one (or they decide on nolynch)
Once someone is lynched, nighttime starts. This thread will be locked, and the wolves and watchmen send me their nighttime targets. The wolfsbane is also transferred. Once every target has been sent, the day starts anew.

--------------------------------

If you wish to play and haven't been invited, apply by PM, and you may be put on a list as a substitute in the case that someone can't play.

Vote: Rathyr

The conclusion of the first day is inevitable. May as well get it over and done with. 




Unvote

Naridill said:

How many times have you lynched Rathyr so far? Shouldn't we be discussing it rather than taking him every time

Click to expand...

Hey, he can't stay innocent forever. He'll have to be a wolf sometime, and I'll bet you anything it'll be the game where we don't kill him on the first day.

Naridill said:

Who here is playing this for the first time? I doubt first-timers would be assigned as wolves, because of inexperience and the likes. Of course, I could be wrong, and you should be lynching me right now, but James is an understanding individual. Rathyr's a veteran, though

Click to expand...

Roles aren't assigned, they're random.

You're on notice now, bub.

The disease has spread. From central Germany, it has crept up through northern France, and has now crossed the Channel. In the small town of Crundale, near Canterbury, there have been sightings of a large dog-like creature stalking the nearby forests. The villagers are fearful for their lives, and have decided to try to do something about it. They have so far inferred that the wolf must live near their village, as there has been no news from other nearby towns about any sightings.

However, one night one of their own villagers vanishes suspiciously during the night, and the clues left behind all point to the fact that rather than a large canis lupus, they are dealing with a werewolf. The villagers decide to hold a meeting in the town square, and continue holding them every day until the threat has passed, or the threat is no longer a problem for the humans (i.e., they are all dead).

Certain clues point to the fact that there may be more than one wolf, and possibly even two packs. If there are indeed two, the villagers have an advantage, as the wolves will decide to eliminate the other packs, as well as kill the villagers. As each pack can only eat one entity nightly, the villagers stand a good chance of survival, at least to escape and warn the surrounding countryside.

Two villagers decide to put their lives on the line for the rest of the village, and watch the town at night to seek out the suspects.

Also, one lucky villager discovered a sprig of wolfsbane in the forest during the day. He can keep it for himself, but the village will want it shared, so he must forsake it the next night.

Now the villagers must decide who is guilty, and who is to live.

Have at it, and be serious now. It is a life and death situation you got here.

Naridill: It's random, so being a n00b doesn't mean that you can't be a wolf. Claiming to be a villager due to that erroneous logic so early on is a clear sign of wolfhood. 


okiN, I don't take sucker bets.


Talk!!! Talk, damn you all!

Indeed, it was truly random. I used the probability simulator on my calculator to draw cards.

So. It begins.





Now we wait for more people to come along. 

Ok, so we need to play this one safe. I noticed that the last game, everyone just lynched and vigg'ed randomly...so with the two watchman, we should get an idea of who is who.

The watchmen should check two people tonight, we should abstain from lynching (if we can), and then (hopefully), there will be 4 confirmed villagers (possibly even a confirmed wolf). Anyone see flaws in that theory?

I guess there is not much we can say on the first day, really.

I would say if we had a priest like before that we would do a nolych at this stage, but lynches might be the only clues we get through the whole game until nearly the end of things. It seems however like the rest of the village gets no report.

I suggest the watchmen lay low even if they know for sure who is who, and not reveal themselves until one is dead or else they have all the werewolves remaining pegged or the game is nearly out. Assuming I am right in thinking we won't get revealed their findings.  Also, towards the beginning I would target separate targets and towards the end concentrate on one suspicious character...of which I am sure we will ahve many as time goes on.

Oh, and everyone should remove their previous pre-start messages and maybe the thread should say (in progress) now, or something.

2 watchman, and if they were lucky, two other people would be confirmed. Or they could try doubling up on someone every night...but with two packs, I'm not so sure that would be quick enough. We need a dash of luck and an effective strategy.

Or we could just wait....see who acts weird. My idea is relying heavily on chances, and I'm sure some people aren't willing to do that.

Edit: as to bryce777's post....yeah, the watchman stay in-cognito except to the people they tag as villagers.

Naridill said:

How would there be 4 confirmed villagers?

Click to expand...

Confirmed to the watchmen, I guess...but how will the rest of us know?

I also think that with two packs and just one wolfsbane and two watchmen the  villagers have about a one in a million chance of winning, but we'll see what happens.

Ehm... I'm not sure we have a vig, or a priest. And how can we clear four people with two watchmen? We don't know who the watchmen are, so we can only clear two people on night one (aside from whoever we lynch or vig, if there is a vig)


With the watchmen, if we have them target two people, here's a breakdown of how it'll be:


As you can see, if they target separately there is a 25% chance that both will be revealed. There is a 50% chance (25+25) that one will be revealed, and a 25% chance that no useful information will be revealed. Alternatively, if they target one person there is a 100% chance of finding information on that person, but no-one else.

Hack, your locig is, I'm afraid to say, made of fail.

Leprechaun said:

Hack, your locig is, I'm afraid to say, made of fail.

Click to expand...

And so is my spelling. Locig? Logic, even.

Two of them slaughtered by wolves, and two of them that aren't cleared at all. The watchmen aren't sure if they target different people.

And abstaining from lynching is only a good thing to do if no one slips up. Which hopefully won't happen. Hopefully some wolf will do something utterly stupid, and then we have a wolf. Of couse, we'll probably be wrong, just like in the last game, but now we don't have a vig that goes berserk on the village and kills innocent's at random... We do have two wolf packs, so we die at the same rate anyways.

Hack McSlash, your plan has only a few flaws, already pointed out. We'll have two cleared people, and they will be dead.


Lots of posts while I was writing. Bah, I'll post it anyway.

Yeah, that's my point. As in, we may know that two people were innocent, but they'll be dead, so it's a moot point.

Leprechaun said:

Ehm... I'm not sure we have a vig, or a priest. And how can we clear four people with two watchmen? We don't know who the watchmen are, so we can only clear two people on night one (aside from whoever we lynch or vig, if there is a vig)


With the watchmen, if we have them target two people, here's a breakdown of how it'll be:

	Watchman 1 succeeds​		Watchman 1 fails​
Watchman 2 succeeds​	50% x 50% = 25%​		50% x 50% = 25%​
Watchman 2 fails​	50% x 50% = 25%​		50% x 50% = 25%​

As you can see, if they target separately there is a 25% chance that both will be revealed. There is a 50% chance (25+25) that one will be revealed, and a 25% chance that no useful information will be revealed. Alternatively, if they target one person there is a 100% chance of finding information on that person, but no-one else.

Hack, your locig is, I'm afraid to say, made of fail.

Click to expand...

Thing is... They don't know if they target a villager, or fail at discovering a wolf, too. So that is VERY risky.

What about my post is risky? I'm no proposing anything at all. All I posted was a comparison of the probabilities. I haven't even suggested what we do yet.

Silver said:

Two of them slaughtered by wolves, and two of them that aren't cleared at all. The watchmen aren't sure if they target different people.

And abstaining from lynching is only a good thing to do if no one slips up. Which hopefully won't happen. Hopefully some wolf will do something utterly stupid, and then we have a wolf. Of couse, we'll probably be wrong, just like in the last game, but now we don't have a vig that goes berserk on the village and kills innocent's at random... We do have two wolf packs, so we die at the same rate anyways.

Hack McSlash, your plan has only a few flaws, already pointed out. We'll have two cleared people, and they will be dead.


Lots of posts while I was writing. Bah, I'll post it anyway.

Click to expand...

Well, the only interesting dynamic is - the wolves have to act innocent enough not to get lynched, but wolfy enough not to get lunched.  Which is kind of a fine line. I doubt that the wolves will genuinely target each other until it's close to the end of the game, sadly.

Silver said:

Leprechaun said:

Ehm... I'm not sure we have a vig, or a priest. And how can we clear four people with two watchmen? We don't know who the watchmen are, so we can only clear two people on night one (aside from whoever we lynch or vig, if there is a vig)


With the watchmen, if we have them target two people, here's a breakdown of how it'll be:

	Watchman 1 succeeds​		Watchman 1 fails​
Watchman 2 succeeds​	50% x 50% = 25%​		50% x 50% = 25%​
Watchman 2 fails​	50% x 50% = 25%​		50% x 50% = 25%​

As you can see, if they target separately there is a 25% chance that both will be revealed. There is a 50% chance (25+25) that one will be revealed, and a 25% chance that no useful information will be revealed. Alternatively, if they target one person there is a 100% chance of finding information on that person, but no-one else.

Hack, your locig is, I'm afraid to say, made of fail.

Click to expand...

Thing is... They don't know if they target a villager, or fail at discovering a wolf, too. So that is VERY risky.

Click to expand...

No, I am pretty sure they know if they succeed or not.  Otherwise they would be much weaker than a single priest.

If they do know, they should always target separate targets, because they can always retarget.

@naridil - yeah they both know who the other is, so if 4 innocents die and they are alive and have cleared 3 innocents, then they will know by default who all the wolves are and can reveal themselves and somehow hopefully be able to convince everyone.

bryce777 said:

Naridill said:

How would there be 4 confirmed villagers?

Click to expand...

Confirmed to the watchmen, I guess...but how will the rest of us know?

I also think that with two packs and just one wolfsbane and two watchmen the  villagers have about a one in a million chance of winning, but we'll see what happens.

Click to expand...

Well, the idea was that the two watchman would know more and more peoples identity as the game goes. If, by day 3, they have the identity of 5 people....and all those 5 people communicate and know for sure they are all innocent, then they will have a much larger voice....noone is to be revealed except for those already known to be clear.

So, effectivly, its a matter of how much luck the two watchman would have. I understand its a poor strategy to rely on luck with so many players and with four wolves, but we had to start with some idea.